Win-Stay, Lose-Sample: A simple sequential algorithm for approximating Bayesian inference

Elizabeth Bonawitz, Stephanie Denison, Alison Gopnik, Thomas L. Griffiths

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

39 Scopus citations

Abstract

People can behave in a way that is consistent with Bayesian models of cognition, despite the fact that performing exact Bayesian inference is computationally challenging. What algorithms could people be using to make this possible? We show that a simple sequential algorithm "Win-Stay, Lose-Sample", inspired by the Win-Stay, Lose-Shift (WSLS) principle, can be used to approximate Bayesian inference. We investigate the behavior of adults and preschoolers on two causal learning tasks to test whether people might use a similar algorithm. These studies use a "mini-microgenetic method", investigating how people sequentially update their beliefs as they encounter new evidence. Experiment 1 investigates a deterministic causal learning scenario and Experiments 2 and 3 examine how people make inferences in a stochastic scenario. The behavior of adults and preschoolers in these experiments is consistent with our Bayesian version of the WSLS principle. This algorithm provides both a practical method for performing Bayesian inference and a new way to understand people's judgments.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)35-65
Number of pages31
JournalCognitive Psychology
Volume74
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 2014
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Neuropsychology and Physiological Psychology
  • Experimental and Cognitive Psychology
  • Developmental and Educational Psychology
  • Linguistics and Language
  • Artificial Intelligence

Keywords

  • Algorithmic level
  • Bayesian inference
  • Causal learning

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