Who Can Tell Which Banks Will Fail?

Kristian Blickle, Markus Brunnermeier, Stephan Luck

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

We study the run on the German banking system in 1931 to understand whether depositors anticipate which banks will fail in a major financial crisis. We find that deposits decline by around 20% during the run. There is an equal outflow of retail and nonfinancial wholesale deposits from both failing and surviving banks. In contrast, we find that interbank deposits almost exclusively decline for failing banks. Our evidence suggests that banks are better informed about which fellow banks will fail. In turn, banks being informed allows the interbank market to continue providing liquidity even during times of severe financial distress.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2685-2731
Number of pages47
JournalReview of Financial Studies
Volume37
Issue number9
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 1 2024

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Accounting
  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics

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