What makes voters turn out: The effects of polls and beliefs

Marina Agranov, Jacob K. Goeree, Julian Romero, Leeat Yariv

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

10 Scopus citations

Abstract

We use laboratory experiments to test for one of the foundations of the rational voter paradigm-that voters respond to probabilities of being pivotal. We exploit a setup that entails stark theoretical effects of information concerning the preference distribution (as revealed through polls) on costly participation decisions. We find that voting propensity increases systematically with subjects' predictions of their preferred alternative's advantage. Consequently, pre-election polls do not exhibit the detrimental welfare effects that extant theoretical work predicts. They lead to more participation by the expected majority and generate more landslide elections.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)825-856
Number of pages32
JournalJournal of the European Economic Association
Volume16
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 1 2018

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)

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