TY - JOUR
T1 - What makes foreign policy teams tick
T2 - Explaining variation in group performance at geopolitical forecasting
AU - Horowitz, Michael
AU - Stewart, Brandon Michael
AU - Tingley, Dustin
AU - Bishop, Michael
AU - Samotin, Laura Resnick
AU - Roberts, Margaret
AU - Chang, Welton
AU - Mellers, Barbara
AU - Tetlock, Philip
N1 - Funding Information:
This project draws on individual-level forecasts submitted as part of a project funded by the US government, specifically the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), to better understand how to create the most accurate geopolitical forecasts possible.5 We use data from 982 individuals. Participants were recruited via e-mail lists, online blogs, and other forums. Participants were required to have a bachelor’s degree or higher. There was an attrition rate of 5% over
Funding Information:
Data and supporting materials necessary to reproduce the numerical results in the article are available in the JOP Dataverse (https://dataverse.harvard.edu /dataverse/jop). An online appendix with supplementary material is available at https://doi.org/10.1086/704437. The study was conducted in compliance with relevant laws and was reviewed by the appropriate institutional research ethics committee. This research was supported by Research Contract D11PC20061 to the University of Pennsylvania and the University of California from the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity via the Department of Interior National Business Center (DoI/NBC). The views and conclusions expressed herein are ours and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies or endorsements, either expressed or implied, of IARPA, DoI/NBC, or the US government. Research reported in this publication was also supported by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development of the National Institutes of Health under award P2CHD047879. The content is solely our responsibility and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 by the Southern Political Science Association. All rights reserved.
PY - 2019/10
Y1 - 2019/10
N2 - When do groups—be they countries, administrations, or other organizations—more or less accurately understand the world around themand assess political choices? Some argue that group decision-making processes often fail due to biases induced by groupthink. Others argue that groups, by aggregating knowledge, are better at analyzing the foreign policy world. To advance knowledge about the intersection of politics and group decision making, this paper draws on evidence from a multiyear geopolitical forecasting tournament with thousands of participants sponsored by the US government. We find that teams outperformed individuals in making accurate geopolitical predictions, with regression discontinuity analysis demonstrating specific teamwork effects.Moreover, structural topicmodels showthatmore cooperative teams outperformed less cooperative teams. These results demonstrate that information sharing through groups, cultivating reasoning to hedge against cognitive biases, and ensuring all perspectives are heard can lead to greater success for groups at forecasting and understanding politics.
AB - When do groups—be they countries, administrations, or other organizations—more or less accurately understand the world around themand assess political choices? Some argue that group decision-making processes often fail due to biases induced by groupthink. Others argue that groups, by aggregating knowledge, are better at analyzing the foreign policy world. To advance knowledge about the intersection of politics and group decision making, this paper draws on evidence from a multiyear geopolitical forecasting tournament with thousands of participants sponsored by the US government. We find that teams outperformed individuals in making accurate geopolitical predictions, with regression discontinuity analysis demonstrating specific teamwork effects.Moreover, structural topicmodels showthatmore cooperative teams outperformed less cooperative teams. These results demonstrate that information sharing through groups, cultivating reasoning to hedge against cognitive biases, and ensuring all perspectives are heard can lead to greater success for groups at forecasting and understanding politics.
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U2 - 10.1086/704437
DO - 10.1086/704437
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85071934831
SN - 0022-3816
VL - 81
SP - 1388
EP - 1404
JO - Journal of Politics
JF - Journal of Politics
IS - 4
ER -