TY - JOUR
T1 - What makes foreign policy teams tick
T2 - Explaining variation in group performance at geopolitical forecasting
AU - Horowitz, Michael
AU - Stewart, Brandon Michael
AU - Tingley, Dustin
AU - Bishop, Michael
AU - Samotin, Laura Resnick
AU - Roberts, Margaret
AU - Chang, Welton
AU - Mellers, Barbara
AU - Tetlock, Philip
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 by the Southern Political Science Association. All rights reserved.
PY - 2019/10
Y1 - 2019/10
N2 - When do groups—be they countries, administrations, or other organizations—more or less accurately understand the world around themand assess political choices? Some argue that group decision-making processes often fail due to biases induced by groupthink. Others argue that groups, by aggregating knowledge, are better at analyzing the foreign policy world. To advance knowledge about the intersection of politics and group decision making, this paper draws on evidence from a multiyear geopolitical forecasting tournament with thousands of participants sponsored by the US government. We find that teams outperformed individuals in making accurate geopolitical predictions, with regression discontinuity analysis demonstrating specific teamwork effects.Moreover, structural topicmodels showthatmore cooperative teams outperformed less cooperative teams. These results demonstrate that information sharing through groups, cultivating reasoning to hedge against cognitive biases, and ensuring all perspectives are heard can lead to greater success for groups at forecasting and understanding politics.
AB - When do groups—be they countries, administrations, or other organizations—more or less accurately understand the world around themand assess political choices? Some argue that group decision-making processes often fail due to biases induced by groupthink. Others argue that groups, by aggregating knowledge, are better at analyzing the foreign policy world. To advance knowledge about the intersection of politics and group decision making, this paper draws on evidence from a multiyear geopolitical forecasting tournament with thousands of participants sponsored by the US government. We find that teams outperformed individuals in making accurate geopolitical predictions, with regression discontinuity analysis demonstrating specific teamwork effects.Moreover, structural topicmodels showthatmore cooperative teams outperformed less cooperative teams. These results demonstrate that information sharing through groups, cultivating reasoning to hedge against cognitive biases, and ensuring all perspectives are heard can lead to greater success for groups at forecasting and understanding politics.
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U2 - 10.1086/704437
DO - 10.1086/704437
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85071934831
SN - 0022-3816
VL - 81
SP - 1388
EP - 1404
JO - Journal of Politics
JF - Journal of Politics
IS - 4
ER -