Abstract
From 9-16 September 2013 significant portions of Colorado experienced extreme precipitation and flooding resulting in large socioeconomic damages and fatalities. Here we investigate the ability of eight global state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction systems to forecast rainfall during the event. Forecasts were analyzed from initializations at 12 UTC 5 September to 12 UTC 12 September to determine when, and how well, the event was captured. Ensemble mean rainfall patterns initialized on 5 September (roughly 4+ day lead time) did not forecast the event's persistent nature; conversely, forecasts initialized on 9 September captured the rainfall patterns reasonably well, although with incorrect rainfall values. Accumulated rainfall forecasts improved when the region considered increased from a 0.5° area centered over Boulder to the entire state of Colorado. We conclude that the models provided guidance indicating a significant period of rainfall in Colorado from 9 September 2013, although not necessarily in the correct locations.
Original language | English (US) |
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Pages (from-to) | 6405-6410 |
Number of pages | 6 |
Journal | Geophysical Research Letters |
Volume | 40 |
Issue number | 24 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Dec 28 2013 |
Externally published | Yes |
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Geophysics
- General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Keywords
- Colorado
- extreme rainfall
- numerical weather prediction