Updating beliefs in light of uncertain evidence: Descriptive assessment of Jeffrey's rule

Jiaying Zhao, Daniel Osherson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

19 Scopus citations

Abstract

Jeffrey (1983) proposed a generalisation of conditioning as a means of updating probability distributions when new evidence drives no event to certainty. His rule requires the stability of certain conditional probabilities through time. We tested this assumption ("invariance") from the psychological point of view. In Experiment 1 participants offered probability estimates for events in Jeffrey's candlelight example. Two further scenarios were investigated in Experiment 2, one in which invariance seems justified, the other in which it does not. Results were in rough conformity to Jeffrey's (1983) principle.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)288-307
Number of pages20
JournalThinking and Reasoning
Volume16
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 1 2010

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Experimental and Cognitive Psychology
  • Philosophy
  • Psychology (miscellaneous)

Keywords

  • Belief updating
  • Jeffrey's rule
  • Reasoning

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