Unifying the Epidemiological and Evolutionary Dynamics of Pathogens

Bryan T. Grenfell; Oliver G. Pybus; Julia R. Gog; James L.N. Wood; Janet M. Daly; Jenny A. Mumford; Edward C. Holmes

doi:10.1126/science.1090727

Unifying the Epidemiological and Evolutionary Dynamics of Pathogens

Bryan T. Grenfell, Oliver G. Pybus, Julia R. Gog, James L.N. Wood, Janet M. Daly, Jenny A. Mumford, Edward C. Holmes

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

1020 Scopus citations

Abstract

A key priority for infectious disease research is to clarify how pathogen genetic variation, modulated by host immunity, transmission bottlenecks, and epidemic dynamics, determines the wide variety of pathogen phylogenies observed at scales that range from individual host to population. We call the melding of immunodynamics, epidemiology, and evolutionary biology required to achieve this synthesis pathogen "phylodynamics." We introduce a phylodynamic framework for the dissection of dynamic forces that determine the diversity of epidemiological and phylogenetic patterns observed in RNA viruses of vertebrates. A central pillar of this model is the Evolutionary Infectivity Profile, which captures the relationship between immune selection and pathogen transmission.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	327-332
Number of pages	6
Journal	Science
Volume	303
Issue number	5656
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1090727
State	Published - Jan 16 2004
Externally published	Yes

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AU - Grenfell, Bryan T.

AU - Pybus, Oliver G.

AU - Gog, Julia R.

AU - Wood, James L.N.

AU - Daly, Janet M.

AU - Mumford, Jenny A.

AU - Holmes, Edward C.

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AB - A key priority for infectious disease research is to clarify how pathogen genetic variation, modulated by host immunity, transmission bottlenecks, and epidemic dynamics, determines the wide variety of pathogen phylogenies observed at scales that range from individual host to population. We call the melding of immunodynamics, epidemiology, and evolutionary biology required to achieve this synthesis pathogen "phylodynamics." We introduce a phylodynamic framework for the dissection of dynamic forces that determine the diversity of epidemiological and phylogenetic patterns observed in RNA viruses of vertebrates. A central pillar of this model is the Evolutionary Infectivity Profile, which captures the relationship between immune selection and pathogen transmission.

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M3 - Review article

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SP - 327

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Unifying the Epidemiological and Evolutionary Dynamics of Pathogens

Abstract

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