Understanding the relationship between intergenerational mobility and community violence

Violence is a key mechanism in the reproduction of community disadvantage. The existing evidence indicates that violence in a community impacts the intergenerational mobility of its residents. The current study explores the possibility of a reverse relationship. This study provisionally tests the hypothesis that depressed intergenerational mobility in a community may also spark subsequent community violence. We deploy a county measure of intergenerational mobility captured during early adulthood for a cohort of youth born between 1980 and 1986 and raised in low-income families [R. Chetty, N. Hendren, Quart. J. Econom. 133, 1163–1228 (2018)]. We model the relationship between county mobility scores and two county-level outcomes: violent crime and homicide. We find that a county’s level of intergenerational mobility as measured by the Chetty–Hendren data is a major predictor of its rate of violent crime and homicide in 2008, when the youth in Chetty’s mobility cohort were young adults (the same age the mobility measure was captured). In fact, mobility is a significantly stronger and more consistent predictor of community violent crime and homicide rates than more commonly used factors like poverty, inequality, unemployment, and law enforcement presence.