TY - JOUR
T1 - Typhoon wind hazard estimation by full-track simulation with various wind intensity models
AU - Huang, Mingfeng
AU - Wang, Qing
AU - Li, Qiang
AU - Jing, Renzhi
AU - Lin, Ning
AU - Wang, Lizhong
N1 - Funding Information:
The work described in this paper was partially supported by Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Project No. 2018YFE0109500 ), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project No. 51838012 and 52178512 ).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2021/11
Y1 - 2021/11
N2 - A general framework of typhoon full-track simulation for the Western North Pacific (WNP) basin is presented in this paper. Specifically, an empirical TC track model integrated with two intensity models, i.e., a classical Vickery intensity regression model (VIRM) and a novel Markov Environment-Dependent Hurricane Intensity Model (MeHiM) are developed. The applicability of MeHiM for typhoon simulation in WNP basin is validated by comparing several metrics (i.e., intensity spatial distribution, probabilistic distributions) with those from observation data. The full-track model parameters are calibrated and modified for the local area of the WNP basin, and storm tracks from the genesis to lysis are generated. The proposed full-track typhoon simulation framework together with a widely-used wind field model is employed to estimate design wind speed with a given return period for ten major cities of Southeast China. The results show that the estimated 100-year return period design wind speeds in simulated tropical cyclone climates are in good agreement with that prescribed in the current design code for some cities. For other cities, the comparison is complicated.
AB - A general framework of typhoon full-track simulation for the Western North Pacific (WNP) basin is presented in this paper. Specifically, an empirical TC track model integrated with two intensity models, i.e., a classical Vickery intensity regression model (VIRM) and a novel Markov Environment-Dependent Hurricane Intensity Model (MeHiM) are developed. The applicability of MeHiM for typhoon simulation in WNP basin is validated by comparing several metrics (i.e., intensity spatial distribution, probabilistic distributions) with those from observation data. The full-track model parameters are calibrated and modified for the local area of the WNP basin, and storm tracks from the genesis to lysis are generated. The proposed full-track typhoon simulation framework together with a widely-used wind field model is employed to estimate design wind speed with a given return period for ten major cities of Southeast China. The results show that the estimated 100-year return period design wind speeds in simulated tropical cyclone climates are in good agreement with that prescribed in the current design code for some cities. For other cities, the comparison is complicated.
KW - Extreme wind speed
KW - Full-track simulation
KW - Monte Carlo simulation
KW - Typhoon
KW - Wind intensity model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85116136818&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85116136818&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jweia.2021.104792
DO - 10.1016/j.jweia.2021.104792
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85116136818
SN - 0167-6105
VL - 218
JO - Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics
JF - Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics
M1 - 104792
ER -