TY - JOUR
T1 - Tropical cyclone-blackout-heatwave compound hazard resilience in a changing climate
AU - Feng, Kairui
AU - Ouyang, Min
AU - Lin, Ning
N1 - Funding Information:
K.F. and N.L. are supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (1652448 and 2103754 as part of the Megalopolitan Coastal Transformation Hub) and C3.ai Digital Transformation Institute (C3.ai DTI Research Award). M.O. is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72074089, 51938004, and 71821001). We thank Tom Matthews (Loughborough University) for advising us on the heatwave analysis. We thank Kerry Emanuel (MIT) for providing the synthetic hurricane datasets. We also thank the reviewers for providing constructive suggestions.
Funding Information:
K.F. and N.L. are supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (1652448 and 2103754 as part of the Megalopolitan Coastal Transformation Hub) and C3.ai Digital Transformation Institute (C3.ai DTI Research Award). M.O. is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72074089, 51938004, and 71821001). We thank Tom Matthews (Loughborough University) for advising us on the heatwave analysis. We thank Kerry Emanuel (MIT) for providing the synthetic hurricane datasets. We also thank the reviewers for providing constructive suggestions.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).
PY - 2022/12
Y1 - 2022/12
N2 - Tropical cyclones (TCs) have caused extensive power outages. The impacts of TC-caused blackouts may worsen in the future as TCs and heatwaves intensify. Here we couple TC and heatwave projections and power outage and recovery process analysis to investigate how TC-blackout-heatwave compound hazard risk may vary in a changing climate, with Harris County, Texas as an example. We find that, under the high-emissions scenario RCP8.5, long-duration heatwaves following strong TCs may increase sharply. The expected percentage of Harris residents experiencing at least one longer-than-5-day TC-blackout-heatwave compound hazard in a 20-year period could increase dramatically by a factor of 23 (from 0.8% to 18.2%) over the 21st century. We also reveal that a moderate enhancement of the power distribution network can significantly mitigate the compound hazard risk. Thus, climate adaptation actions, such as strategically undergrounding distribution network and developing distributed energy sources, are urgently needed to improve coastal power system resilience.
AB - Tropical cyclones (TCs) have caused extensive power outages. The impacts of TC-caused blackouts may worsen in the future as TCs and heatwaves intensify. Here we couple TC and heatwave projections and power outage and recovery process analysis to investigate how TC-blackout-heatwave compound hazard risk may vary in a changing climate, with Harris County, Texas as an example. We find that, under the high-emissions scenario RCP8.5, long-duration heatwaves following strong TCs may increase sharply. The expected percentage of Harris residents experiencing at least one longer-than-5-day TC-blackout-heatwave compound hazard in a 20-year period could increase dramatically by a factor of 23 (from 0.8% to 18.2%) over the 21st century. We also reveal that a moderate enhancement of the power distribution network can significantly mitigate the compound hazard risk. Thus, climate adaptation actions, such as strategically undergrounding distribution network and developing distributed energy sources, are urgently needed to improve coastal power system resilience.
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U2 - 10.1038/s41467-022-32018-4
DO - 10.1038/s41467-022-32018-4
M3 - Article
C2 - 35907874
AN - SCOPUS:85135201362
SN - 2041-1723
VL - 13
JO - Nature Communications
JF - Nature Communications
IS - 1
M1 - 4421
ER -