TY - JOUR
T1 - Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread
AU - Giles, John R.
AU - Cummings, Derek A.T.
AU - Grenfell, Bryan T.
AU - Tatem, Andrew J.
AU - Erbach-Schoenberg, Elisabeth zu
AU - Metcalf, C. J.E.
AU - Wesolowski, Amy
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright: © 2021 Giles et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
PY - 2021/8
Y1 - 2021/8
N2 - Human travel is one of the primary drivers of infectious disease spread. Models of travel are often used that assume the amount of travel to a specific destination decreases as cost of travel increases with higher travel volumes to more populated destinations. Trip duration, the length of time spent in a destination, can also impact travel patterns. We investigated the spatial patterns of travel conditioned on trip duration and find distinct differences between short and long duration trips. In short-trip duration travel networks, trips are skewed towards urban destinations, compared with long-trip duration networks where travel is more evenly spread among locations. Using gravity models to inform connectivity patterns in simulations of disease transmission, we show that pathogens with shorter generation times exhibit initial patterns of spatial propagation that are more predictable among urban locations. Further, pathogens with a longer generation time have more diffusive patterns of spatial spread reflecting more unpredictable disease dynamics.
AB - Human travel is one of the primary drivers of infectious disease spread. Models of travel are often used that assume the amount of travel to a specific destination decreases as cost of travel increases with higher travel volumes to more populated destinations. Trip duration, the length of time spent in a destination, can also impact travel patterns. We investigated the spatial patterns of travel conditioned on trip duration and find distinct differences between short and long duration trips. In short-trip duration travel networks, trips are skewed towards urban destinations, compared with long-trip duration networks where travel is more evenly spread among locations. Using gravity models to inform connectivity patterns in simulations of disease transmission, we show that pathogens with shorter generation times exhibit initial patterns of spatial propagation that are more predictable among urban locations. Further, pathogens with a longer generation time have more diffusive patterns of spatial spread reflecting more unpredictable disease dynamics.
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U2 - 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009127
DO - 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009127
M3 - Article
C2 - 34375331
AN - SCOPUS:85112658443
SN - 1553-734X
VL - 17
JO - PLoS computational biology
JF - PLoS computational biology
IS - 8
M1 - e1009127
ER -