@article{2de86cb17a714b239b201e0f4b4c1c5b,
title = "Towards Dynamical Seasonal Forecast of Extratropical Transition in the North Atlantic",
abstract = "Extratropical transition can extend the threat of tropical cyclones into the midlatitudes and modify it through expansion of rainfall and wind fields. Despite the scientific and socioeconomic interest, the seasonal forecast of extratropical transition has received little attention. The GFDL High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) model (HiFLOR) shows skill in seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone frequency as well as major hurricanes. A July-initialized 12-member ensemble retrospective seasonal forecast experiment with HiFLOR in the North Atlantic is conducted, representing one of the very first attempts to predict the extratropical transition activity months in advance. HiFLOR exhibits retrospective skill in seasonal forecasts of basin-wide and regional ET activity relative to best track and reanalysis data. In contrast, the skill of HiFLOR in predictions of non-ET activity is limited. Future work targeted at improved predictions of non-ET storms provides a path for enhanced TC activity forecasting.",
keywords = "climate models, extratropical transition, seasonal forecast",
author = "M. Liu and Vecchi, {Gabriel Andres} and Smith, {James A.} and H. Murakami and R. Gudgel and X. Yang",
note = "Funding Information: This work was supported in part by Award NA14OAR4830101 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, the National Science Foundation (grants EAR-1520683 and AGS-1262099), and “A Carbon Mitigation Initiative at Princeton University” BP International 02085(7). The HURDAT best track data are obtained from National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-1851-2017-050118.txt. The JRA55 and CFSR data are obtained from Research Data Achieve at the National Center for Atmospheric Research at https://rda.ucar.edu/. The climate model used in this study is GFDL FLOR with code available at https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cm2-5-and-flor/. Funding Information: This work was supported in part by Award NA14OAR4830101 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, the National Science Foundation (grants EAR-1520683 and AGS-1262099), and “A Carbon Mitigation Initiative at Princeton University” BP International 02085(7). The HURDAT best track data are obtained from National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ data/hurdat/hurdat2-1851-2017- 050118.txt. The JRA55 and CFSR data are obtained from Research Data Achieve at the National Center for Atmospheric Research at https://rda. ucar.edu/. The climate model used in this study is GFDL FLOR with code available at https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/ cm2-5-and-flor/. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright}2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.",
year = "2018",
month = nov,
day = "28",
doi = "10.1029/2018GL079451",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "45",
pages = "12,602--12,609",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
number = "22",
}