TY - JOUR
T1 - Towards an ecosystem model of infectious disease
AU - Hassell, James M.
AU - Newbold, Tim
AU - Dobson, Andrew P.
AU - Linton, Yvonne Marie
AU - Franklinos, Lydia H.V.
AU - Zimmerman, Dawn
AU - Pagenkopp Lohan, Katrina M.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, This is a U.S. government work and not under copyright protection in the U.S.; foreign copyright protection may apply.
PY - 2021/7
Y1 - 2021/7
N2 - Increasingly intimate associations between human society and the natural environment are driving the emergence of novel pathogens, with devastating consequences for humans and animals alike. Prior to emergence, these pathogens exist within complex ecological systems that are characterized by trophic interactions between parasites, their hosts and the environment. Predicting how disturbance to these ecological systems places people and animals at risk from emerging pathogens—and the best ways to manage this—remains a significant challenge. Predictive systems ecology models are powerful tools for the reconstruction of ecosystem function but have yet to be considered for modelling infectious disease. Part of this stems from a mistaken tendency to forget about the role that pathogens play in structuring the abundance and interactions of the free-living species favoured by systems ecologists. Here, we explore how developing and applying these more complete systems ecology models at a landscape scale would greatly enhance our understanding of the reciprocal interactions between parasites, pathogens and the environment, placing zoonoses in an ecological context, while identifying key variables and simplifying assumptions that underly pathogen host switching and animal-to-human spillover risk. As well as transforming our understanding of disease ecology, this would also allow us to better direct resources in preparation for future pandemics.
AB - Increasingly intimate associations between human society and the natural environment are driving the emergence of novel pathogens, with devastating consequences for humans and animals alike. Prior to emergence, these pathogens exist within complex ecological systems that are characterized by trophic interactions between parasites, their hosts and the environment. Predicting how disturbance to these ecological systems places people and animals at risk from emerging pathogens—and the best ways to manage this—remains a significant challenge. Predictive systems ecology models are powerful tools for the reconstruction of ecosystem function but have yet to be considered for modelling infectious disease. Part of this stems from a mistaken tendency to forget about the role that pathogens play in structuring the abundance and interactions of the free-living species favoured by systems ecologists. Here, we explore how developing and applying these more complete systems ecology models at a landscape scale would greatly enhance our understanding of the reciprocal interactions between parasites, pathogens and the environment, placing zoonoses in an ecological context, while identifying key variables and simplifying assumptions that underly pathogen host switching and animal-to-human spillover risk. As well as transforming our understanding of disease ecology, this would also allow us to better direct resources in preparation for future pandemics.
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U2 - 10.1038/s41559-021-01454-8
DO - 10.1038/s41559-021-01454-8
M3 - Review article
C2 - 34002048
AN - SCOPUS:85106245275
SN - 2397-334X
VL - 5
SP - 907
EP - 918
JO - Nature Ecology and Evolution
JF - Nature Ecology and Evolution
IS - 7
ER -