Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic

Nicholas J. Savill; Darren J. Shaw; Rob Deardon; Michael J. Tildesley; Matthew J. Keeling; Mark E.J. Woolhouse; Stephen P. Brooks; Bryan T. Grenfell

doi:10.1186/1746-6148-2-3

Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic

Nicholas J. Savill, Darren J. Shaw, Rob Deardon, Michael J. Tildesley, Matthew J. Keeling, Mark E.J. Woolhouse, Stephen P. Brooks, Bryan T. Grenfell

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

40 Scopus citations

Abstract

Background: A key challenge for modelling infectious disease dynamics is to understand the spatial spread of infection in real landscapes. This ideally requires a parallel record of spatial epidemic spread and a detailed map of susceptible host density along with relevant transport links and geographical features. Results: Here we analyse the most detailed such data to date arising from the UK 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. We show that Euclidean distance between infectious and susceptible premises is a better predictor of transmission risk than shortest and quickest routes via road, except where major geographical features intervene. Conclusion: Thus, a simple spatial transmission kernel based on Euclidean distance suffices in most regions, probably reflecting the multiplicity of transmission routes during the epidemic.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	3
Journal	BMC Veterinary Research
Volume	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1186/1746-6148-2-3
State	Published - Jan 16 2006
Externally published	Yes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

General Veterinary

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title = "Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic",

abstract = "Background: A key challenge for modelling infectious disease dynamics is to understand the spatial spread of infection in real landscapes. This ideally requires a parallel record of spatial epidemic spread and a detailed map of susceptible host density along with relevant transport links and geographical features. Results: Here we analyse the most detailed such data to date arising from the UK 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. We show that Euclidean distance between infectious and susceptible premises is a better predictor of transmission risk than shortest and quickest routes via road, except where major geographical features intervene. Conclusion: Thus, a simple spatial transmission kernel based on Euclidean distance suffices in most regions, probably reflecting the multiplicity of transmission routes during the epidemic.",

author = "Savill, {Nicholas J.} and Shaw, {Darren J.} and Rob Deardon and Tildesley, {Michael J.} and Keeling, {Matthew J.} and Woolhouse, {Mark E.J.} and Brooks, {Stephen P.} and Grenfell, {Bryan T.}",

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T1 - Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic

AU - Savill, Nicholas J.

AU - Shaw, Darren J.

AU - Deardon, Rob

AU - Tildesley, Michael J.

AU - Keeling, Matthew J.

AU - Woolhouse, Mark E.J.

AU - Brooks, Stephen P.

AU - Grenfell, Bryan T.

PY - 2006/1/16

Y1 - 2006/1/16

N2 - Background: A key challenge for modelling infectious disease dynamics is to understand the spatial spread of infection in real landscapes. This ideally requires a parallel record of spatial epidemic spread and a detailed map of susceptible host density along with relevant transport links and geographical features. Results: Here we analyse the most detailed such data to date arising from the UK 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. We show that Euclidean distance between infectious and susceptible premises is a better predictor of transmission risk than shortest and quickest routes via road, except where major geographical features intervene. Conclusion: Thus, a simple spatial transmission kernel based on Euclidean distance suffices in most regions, probably reflecting the multiplicity of transmission routes during the epidemic.

AB - Background: A key challenge for modelling infectious disease dynamics is to understand the spatial spread of infection in real landscapes. This ideally requires a parallel record of spatial epidemic spread and a detailed map of susceptible host density along with relevant transport links and geographical features. Results: Here we analyse the most detailed such data to date arising from the UK 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. We show that Euclidean distance between infectious and susceptible premises is a better predictor of transmission risk than shortest and quickest routes via road, except where major geographical features intervene. Conclusion: Thus, a simple spatial transmission kernel based on Euclidean distance suffices in most regions, probably reflecting the multiplicity of transmission routes during the epidemic.

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Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic

Abstract

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