The vulnerability of electric-vehicle and wind-turbine supply chains to the supply of rare-earth elements in a 2-degree scenario

Benjamin Ballinger, Diego Schmeda-Lopez, Benjamin Kefford, Brett Parkinson, Martin Stringer, Chris Greig, Simon Smart

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

52 Scopus citations

Abstract

Decarbonation of the energy system is required at an unprecedented scale to prevent global temperatures rising more than 2 °C. A suite of low carbon technologies will be required for this transition. Two of these technologies, wind turbines and electric vehicles, utilise rare earth elements that are sourced from a monopolised supply chain. This could pose a risk to attaining global climate targets. Using demand forecasting, this study shows that 2-degree targets are indeed vulnerable to the rare earth element supply chain. It was found that the consumption of rare earth elements in the electric vehicle industry is unsustainable under current market conditions, while wind turbines are relatively invulnerable to the supply risk of rare earth elements. The stark contrast in risk exposure of these technologies is clearly at odds with the economically optimal deployment projections given in the IEA 2DS scenario. Failure to incorporate these risks in future models will likely impair climate change mitigation efforts.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)68-76
Number of pages9
JournalSustainable Production and Consumption
Volume22
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 2020
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

Keywords

  • Electric vehicle
  • Low carbon technology
  • Rare earth elements
  • Supply chain
  • Wind turbine

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