The second phase of the global land-atmosphere coupling experiment: Soil moisture contributions to subseasonal forecast skill

R. D. Koster; S. P.P. Mahanama; T. J. Yamada; Gianpaolo Balsamo; A. A. Berg; M. Boisserie; P. A. Dirmeyer; F. J. Doblas-Reyes; G. Drewitt; C. T. Gordon; Z. Guo; J. H. Jeong; W. S. Lee; Z. Li; L. Luo; S. Malyshev; W. J. Merryfield; S. I. Seneviratne; T. Stanelle; B. J.J.M. Van Den Hurk; F. Vitart; Eric F. Wood

doi:10.1175/2011JHM1365.1

The second phase of the global land-atmosphere coupling experiment: Soil moisture contributions to subseasonal forecast skill

R. D. Koster, S. P.P. Mahanama, T. J. Yamada, Gianpaolo Balsamo, A. A. Berg, M. Boisserie, P. A. Dirmeyer, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, G. Drewitt, C. T. Gordon, Z. Guo, J. H. Jeong, W. S. Lee, Z. Li, L. Luo, S. Malyshev, W. J. Merryfield, S. I. Seneviratne, T. Stanelle, B. J.J.M. Van Den HurkF. Vitart, Eric F. Wood

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304 Scopus citations

Abstract

The second phase of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) is amulti-institutional numerical modeling experiment focused on quantifying, for boreal summer, the subseasonal (out to two months) forecast skill for precipitation and air temperature that can be derived from the realistic initialization of land surface states, notably soil moisture. An overview of the experiment and model behavior at the global scale is described here, along with a determination and characterization of multimodel "consensus" skill. The models show modest but significant skill in predicting air temperatures, especially where the rain gauge network is dense. Given that precipitation is the chief driver of soil moisture, and thereby assuming that rain gauge density is a reasonable proxy for the adequacy of the observational network contributing to soil moisture initialization, this result indeed highlights the potential contribution of enhanced observations to prediction. Land-derived precipitation forecast skill is much weaker than that for air temperature. The skill for predicting air temperature, and to some extent precipitation, increases with the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly. GLACE-2 results are examined further to provide insight into the asymmetric impacts of wet and dry soil moisture initialization on skill.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	805-822
Number of pages	18
Journal	Journal of Hydrometeorology
Volume	12
Issue number	5
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1365.1
State	Published - Oct 2011

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Atmospheric Science

Keywords

Coupled models
Forecasting
Land surface model
Precipitation
Soil moisture
Temperature

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10.1175/2011JHM1365.1

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Koster, R. D., Mahanama, S. P. P., Yamada, T. J., Balsamo, G., Berg, A. A., Boisserie, M., Dirmeyer, P. A., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Drewitt, G., Gordon, C. T., Guo, Z., Jeong, J. H., Lee, W. S., Li, Z., Luo, L., Malyshev, S., Merryfield, W. J., Seneviratne, S. I., Stanelle, T., ... Wood, E. F. (2011). The second phase of the global land-atmosphere coupling experiment: Soil moisture contributions to subseasonal forecast skill. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12(5), 805-822. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1365.1

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title = "The second phase of the global land-atmosphere coupling experiment: Soil moisture contributions to subseasonal forecast skill",

abstract = "The second phase of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) is amulti-institutional numerical modeling experiment focused on quantifying, for boreal summer, the subseasonal (out to two months) forecast skill for precipitation and air temperature that can be derived from the realistic initialization of land surface states, notably soil moisture. An overview of the experiment and model behavior at the global scale is described here, along with a determination and characterization of multimodel {"}consensus{"} skill. The models show modest but significant skill in predicting air temperatures, especially where the rain gauge network is dense. Given that precipitation is the chief driver of soil moisture, and thereby assuming that rain gauge density is a reasonable proxy for the adequacy of the observational network contributing to soil moisture initialization, this result indeed highlights the potential contribution of enhanced observations to prediction. Land-derived precipitation forecast skill is much weaker than that for air temperature. The skill for predicting air temperature, and to some extent precipitation, increases with the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly. GLACE-2 results are examined further to provide insight into the asymmetric impacts of wet and dry soil moisture initialization on skill.",

keywords = "Coupled models, Forecasting, Land surface model, Precipitation, Soil moisture, Temperature",

author = "Koster, {R. D.} and Mahanama, {S. P.P.} and Yamada, {T. J.} and Gianpaolo Balsamo and Berg, {A. A.} and M. Boisserie and Dirmeyer, {P. A.} and Doblas-Reyes, {F. J.} and G. Drewitt and Gordon, {C. T.} and Z. Guo and Jeong, {J. H.} and Lee, {W. S.} and Z. Li and L. Luo and S. Malyshev and Merryfield, {W. J.} and Seneviratne, {S. I.} and T. Stanelle and {Van Den Hurk}, {B. J.J.M.} and F. Vitart and Wood, {Eric F.}",

year = "2011",

month = oct,

doi = "10.1175/2011JHM1365.1",

language = "English (US)",

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Koster, RD, Mahanama, SPP, Yamada, TJ, Balsamo, G, Berg, AA, Boisserie, M, Dirmeyer, PA, Doblas-Reyes, FJ, Drewitt, G, Gordon, CT, Guo, Z, Jeong, JH, Lee, WS, Li, Z, Luo, L, Malyshev, S, Merryfield, WJ, Seneviratne, SI, Stanelle, T, Van Den Hurk, BJJM, Vitart, F & Wood, EF 2011, 'The second phase of the global land-atmosphere coupling experiment: Soil moisture contributions to subseasonal forecast skill', Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 12, no. 5, pp. 805-822. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1365.1

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T2 - Soil moisture contributions to subseasonal forecast skill

AU - Koster, R. D.

AU - Mahanama, S. P.P.

AU - Yamada, T. J.

AU - Balsamo, Gianpaolo

AU - Berg, A. A.

AU - Boisserie, M.

AU - Dirmeyer, P. A.

AU - Doblas-Reyes, F. J.

AU - Drewitt, G.

AU - Gordon, C. T.

AU - Guo, Z.

AU - Jeong, J. H.

AU - Lee, W. S.

AU - Li, Z.

AU - Luo, L.

AU - Malyshev, S.

AU - Merryfield, W. J.

AU - Seneviratne, S. I.

AU - Stanelle, T.

AU - Van Den Hurk, B. J.J.M.

AU - Vitart, F.

AU - Wood, Eric F.

PY - 2011/10

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N2 - The second phase of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) is amulti-institutional numerical modeling experiment focused on quantifying, for boreal summer, the subseasonal (out to two months) forecast skill for precipitation and air temperature that can be derived from the realistic initialization of land surface states, notably soil moisture. An overview of the experiment and model behavior at the global scale is described here, along with a determination and characterization of multimodel "consensus" skill. The models show modest but significant skill in predicting air temperatures, especially where the rain gauge network is dense. Given that precipitation is the chief driver of soil moisture, and thereby assuming that rain gauge density is a reasonable proxy for the adequacy of the observational network contributing to soil moisture initialization, this result indeed highlights the potential contribution of enhanced observations to prediction. Land-derived precipitation forecast skill is much weaker than that for air temperature. The skill for predicting air temperature, and to some extent precipitation, increases with the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly. GLACE-2 results are examined further to provide insight into the asymmetric impacts of wet and dry soil moisture initialization on skill.

AB - The second phase of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) is amulti-institutional numerical modeling experiment focused on quantifying, for boreal summer, the subseasonal (out to two months) forecast skill for precipitation and air temperature that can be derived from the realistic initialization of land surface states, notably soil moisture. An overview of the experiment and model behavior at the global scale is described here, along with a determination and characterization of multimodel "consensus" skill. The models show modest but significant skill in predicting air temperatures, especially where the rain gauge network is dense. Given that precipitation is the chief driver of soil moisture, and thereby assuming that rain gauge density is a reasonable proxy for the adequacy of the observational network contributing to soil moisture initialization, this result indeed highlights the potential contribution of enhanced observations to prediction. Land-derived precipitation forecast skill is much weaker than that for air temperature. The skill for predicting air temperature, and to some extent precipitation, increases with the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly. GLACE-2 results are examined further to provide insight into the asymmetric impacts of wet and dry soil moisture initialization on skill.

KW - Coupled models

KW - Forecasting

KW - Land surface model

KW - Precipitation

KW - Soil moisture

KW - Temperature

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The second phase of the global land-atmosphere coupling experiment: Soil moisture contributions to subseasonal forecast skill

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