TY - JOUR
T1 - The Role of Firm Low-Carbon Electricity Resources in Deep Decarbonization of Power Generation
AU - Sepulveda, Nestor A.
AU - Jenkins, Jesse D.
AU - de Sisternes, Fernando J.
AU - Lester, Richard K.
N1 - Funding Information:
N.A.S. would like to thank the Chilean Navy and MIT for their financial support, and to acknowledge Dr. Charles W. Forsberg for his advice in the thesis work that evolved into this research. J.D.J. thanks the MIT Energy Initiative and the Martin Family Society of Fellows for Sustainability for their financial support. The authors would like to thank the Julia for Mathematical Programming (JuMP) team at MIT for their support in developing the optimization programming package used in this research. Significant computing resources at MIT's Engaging Cluster at the Massachusetts Green High Performance Computing Center were used in this research. Finally, we thank three anonymous reviewers for detailed and constructive comments on a prior version of this paper that helped us strengthen and refine the analysis and discussion herein.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 Elsevier Inc.
PY - 2018/11/21
Y1 - 2018/11/21
N2 - We investigate the role of firm low-carbon resources in decarbonizing power generation in combination with variable renewable resources, battery energy storage, demand flexibility, and long-distance transmission. We evaluate nearly 1,000 cases covering varying CO2 limits, technological uncertainties, and geographic differences in demand and renewable resource potential. Availability of firm low-carbon technologies, including nuclear, natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration, and bioenergy, reduces electricity costs by 10%–62% across fully decarbonized cases. Below 50 gCO2/kWh, these resources lower costs in the vast majority of cases. Additionally, as emissions limits decrease, installed capacity of several resources changes non-monotonically. This underscores the need to evaluate near-term policy and investment decisions based on contributions to long-term decarbonization rather than interim goals. Installed capacity for all resources is also strongly affected by uncertain technology parameters. This emphasizes the importance of a broad research portfolio and flexible policy support that expands rather than constrains future options.
AB - We investigate the role of firm low-carbon resources in decarbonizing power generation in combination with variable renewable resources, battery energy storage, demand flexibility, and long-distance transmission. We evaluate nearly 1,000 cases covering varying CO2 limits, technological uncertainties, and geographic differences in demand and renewable resource potential. Availability of firm low-carbon technologies, including nuclear, natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration, and bioenergy, reduces electricity costs by 10%–62% across fully decarbonized cases. Below 50 gCO2/kWh, these resources lower costs in the vast majority of cases. Additionally, as emissions limits decrease, installed capacity of several resources changes non-monotonically. This underscores the need to evaluate near-term policy and investment decisions based on contributions to long-term decarbonization rather than interim goals. Installed capacity for all resources is also strongly affected by uncertain technology parameters. This emphasizes the importance of a broad research portfolio and flexible policy support that expands rather than constrains future options.
KW - climate change mitigation
KW - decarbonization
KW - electric power systems
KW - energy and climate policy
KW - energy systems engineering
KW - low-carbon firm resources
KW - power systems planning
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U2 - 10.1016/j.joule.2018.08.006
DO - 10.1016/j.joule.2018.08.006
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85057402475
SN - 2542-4351
VL - 2
SP - 2403
EP - 2420
JO - Joule
JF - Joule
IS - 11
ER -