TY - JOUR
T1 - The Role of Climate in Monthly Baseflow Changes across the Continental United States
AU - Ayers, Jessica R.
AU - Villarini, Gabriele
AU - Schilling, Keith
AU - Jones, Christopher
AU - Brookfield, Andrea
AU - Zipper, Samuel C.
AU - Farmer, William H.
N1 - Funding Information:
This study was supported in part by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. DGE 1633098, by Iowa State University under Iowa Development Authority Award No. 13-NDRP-016 through funding from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the US Army Corps of Engineers Institute for Water Resources. This work was conducted in conjunction with the Streamflow Depletion Across the United States Working Group supported by the John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, funded by the USGS. We thank two anonymous reviewers and Matt Miller (USGS) for their comments and suggestions. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US government.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
PY - 2022/5/1
Y1 - 2022/5/1
N2 - Baseflow is the portion of streamflow that comes from groundwater and subsurface sources. Although baseflow is essential for sustaining streams during low flow and drought periods, we have little information about how and why it has changed over large regions of the continental United States. The objective of this study was to evaluate how changes in the climate system have affected observed monthly baseflow records at 3,283 USGS gauges over the last 30 years (1989-2019). We developed a statistical modeling framework to determine the relationship between monthly baseflow and monthly climate predictors (i.e., precipitation, temperature, and antecedent wetness). Overall, we found that baseflow trends and the factors influencing them vary by region and month. In the US Northeast, increases were detected earlier in the year (February and March) and in the summer (May and June), and were likely due to increasing precipitation, warmer temperature, and subsequent changes in snowmelt. Increasing baseflow in the US Pacific Northwest and Midwest were associated with increases in precipitation and antecedent wetness throughout the year. Decreasing trends were located in the US Southeast and Southwest. Baseflow trends in the US Southeast were only detected in March, possibly as a result of decreased precipitation during the spring. On the other hand, decreases in baseflow in the Central Southwestern United States occurred throughout the year. These trends were associated with a lack of precipitation and increases in temperature. Finally, we examined the relationship between monthly baseflow trends and changes in total water storage using monthly Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mascon products from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. In this study, trends in total water storage were strongly associated with baseflow trends across the United States. The spatial and temporal variability in baseflow response to climate reported here can aid water managers in adapting to future climate change.
AB - Baseflow is the portion of streamflow that comes from groundwater and subsurface sources. Although baseflow is essential for sustaining streams during low flow and drought periods, we have little information about how and why it has changed over large regions of the continental United States. The objective of this study was to evaluate how changes in the climate system have affected observed monthly baseflow records at 3,283 USGS gauges over the last 30 years (1989-2019). We developed a statistical modeling framework to determine the relationship between monthly baseflow and monthly climate predictors (i.e., precipitation, temperature, and antecedent wetness). Overall, we found that baseflow trends and the factors influencing them vary by region and month. In the US Northeast, increases were detected earlier in the year (February and March) and in the summer (May and June), and were likely due to increasing precipitation, warmer temperature, and subsequent changes in snowmelt. Increasing baseflow in the US Pacific Northwest and Midwest were associated with increases in precipitation and antecedent wetness throughout the year. Decreasing trends were located in the US Southeast and Southwest. Baseflow trends in the US Southeast were only detected in March, possibly as a result of decreased precipitation during the spring. On the other hand, decreases in baseflow in the Central Southwestern United States occurred throughout the year. These trends were associated with a lack of precipitation and increases in temperature. Finally, we examined the relationship between monthly baseflow trends and changes in total water storage using monthly Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mascon products from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. In this study, trends in total water storage were strongly associated with baseflow trends across the United States. The spatial and temporal variability in baseflow response to climate reported here can aid water managers in adapting to future climate change.
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U2 - 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002170
DO - 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002170
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85127002017
SN - 1084-0699
VL - 27
JO - Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
JF - Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
IS - 5
M1 - 04022006
ER -