@article{6685617ffa764f0d8e3637a65082b27f,
title = "The political economy of IMF forecasts",
abstract = "We investigate the political economy of IMF forecasts with data for 157 countries (1999-2005). Generally, we find evidence of forecast bias in growth and inflation. Specifically, we find that countries voting with the United States in the UN General Assembly receive lower inflation forecasts as domestic elections approach. Countries with large loans outstanding from the IMF also receive lower inflation forecasts, suggesting that the IMF engages in {"}defensive forecasting.{"} Finally, countries with fixed exchange rate regimes receive lower inflation forecasts, suggesting the IMF desires to preserve stability as inflation can have detrimental effects under such an exchange rate regime.",
keywords = "Economic forecasts, IMF, Political influence",
author = "Axel Dreher and Silvia Marchesi and Vreeland, {James Raymond}",
note = "Funding Information: Acknowledgements For financial support, the authors are grateful to the Georg Walter Leitner Program in International and Comparative Political Economy at Yale University. For helpful comments we thank seminar participants at the World Meeting of the Public Choice Societies (Amsterdam, 2007), the APSA Annual Meeting (Chicago, 2007), the International Society for New Institutional Economics (Reykjavik, 2007), the Canadian Economic Association (Halifax, 2007), the International Political Economy Seminar (Stanford University, 2007), the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich, the Globalisation and Development Centre at Bond University, Benjamin J. Cohen, Martin Gassebner, Matt Golder, Nathan M. Jensen, Ahmed Khalid, Emanuela Marrocu, Katharina Michaelowa, Helen Milner, Frances Rosenbluth, Randall Stone, Jennifer Tobin and Francisco Jos{\'e} Veiga. We thank Frank Aldenhoff for sharing his IMF forecast data and Jacqueline Oh and Thomas Schulz for excellent research assistance. Each author blames the others for any remaining mistakes.",
year = "2008",
month = oct,
doi = "10.1007/s11127-008-9318-6",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "137",
pages = "145--171",
journal = "Public Choice",
issn = "0048-5829",
publisher = "Springer Netherlands",
number = "1-2",
}