TY - JOUR
T1 - The playing field shifts
T2 - Predicting the seats-votes curve in the 2008 U.S. House elections
AU - Kastellec, Jonathan P.
AU - Gelman, Andrew
AU - Chandler, Jamie P.
PY - 2008/10
Y1 - 2008/10
N2 - The 2008 U.S. House elections mark the first time since 1994 that the Democrats will seek to retain a majority. With the political climate favoring Democrats this year, it seems almost certain that the party will retain control, and will likely increase its share of seats. In five national polls taken in June of this year, Democrats enjoyed on average a 13-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot; as Bafumi, Erikson, and Wlezien (2007) point out, these early polls, suitably adjusted, are good predictors of the November vote. As of late July, bettors at intrade.com put the probability of the Democrats retaining a majority at about 95% (Intrade.com 2008). Elsewhere in this symposium, Klarner (2008) predicts an 11-seat gain for the Democrats, while Lockerbie (2008) forecasts a 25-seat pickup.
AB - The 2008 U.S. House elections mark the first time since 1994 that the Democrats will seek to retain a majority. With the political climate favoring Democrats this year, it seems almost certain that the party will retain control, and will likely increase its share of seats. In five national polls taken in June of this year, Democrats enjoyed on average a 13-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot; as Bafumi, Erikson, and Wlezien (2007) point out, these early polls, suitably adjusted, are good predictors of the November vote. As of late July, bettors at intrade.com put the probability of the Democrats retaining a majority at about 95% (Intrade.com 2008). Elsewhere in this symposium, Klarner (2008) predicts an 11-seat gain for the Democrats, while Lockerbie (2008) forecasts a 25-seat pickup.
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U2 - 10.1017/S1049096508081201
DO - 10.1017/S1049096508081201
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:53349096214
SN - 1049-0965
VL - 41
SP - 729
EP - 732
JO - PS - Political Science and Politics
JF - PS - Political Science and Politics
IS - 4
ER -