The playing field shifts: Predicting the seats-votes curve in the 2008 U.S. House elections

Jonathan P. Kastellec, Andrew Gelman, Jamie P. Chandler

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

The 2008 U.S. House elections mark the first time since 1994 that the Democrats will seek to retain a majority. With the political climate favoring Democrats this year, it seems almost certain that the party will retain control, and will likely increase its share of seats. In five national polls taken in June of this year, Democrats enjoyed on average a 13-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot; as Bafumi, Erikson, and Wlezien (2007) point out, these early polls, suitably adjusted, are good predictors of the November vote. As of late July, bettors at intrade.com put the probability of the Democrats retaining a majority at about 95% (Intrade.com 2008). Elsewhere in this symposium, Klarner (2008) predicts an 11-seat gain for the Democrats, while Lockerbie (2008) forecasts a 25-seat pickup.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)729-732
Number of pages4
JournalPS - Political Science and Politics
Volume41
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 2008
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Sociology and Political Science

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