The interplay of employment uncertainty and education in explaining second births in Europe

This paper analyzes how labor market instability since the late 1980s in Europe has mediated decisions to have a second child. In particular, I seek to determine the dimensions of economic uncertainty that affect women with different educational backgrounds. First, employing time-varying measures of aggregate market conditions for women in 12 European countries, as well as micro-measures of each woman's labor market history, I find that delays in second births are significant in countries with high unemployment and both among women who are unemployed, particularly the least educated, and those who have temporary jobs. Holding a very short contract is shown to be more critical than unemployment for college graduates. Second, using the 2006 Spanish Fertility Survey, I present remarkably similar findings for Spain, the country with the most dramatic changes in both fertility and unemployment in recent decades: a high jobless rate and the widespread use of limited-duration contracts are found to be correlated with a substantial postponement of second births.