TY - JOUR
T1 - The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Nĩo
AU - Collins, Mat
AU - An, Soon Il
AU - Cai, Wenju
AU - Ganachaud, Alexandre
AU - Guilyardi, Eric
AU - Jin, Fei Fei
AU - Jochum, Markus
AU - Lengaigne, Matthieu
AU - Power, Scott
AU - Timmermann, Axel
AU - Vecchi, Gabriel Andres
AU - Wittenberg, Andrew
PY - 2010/6
Y1 - 2010/6
N2 - The El Nĩo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation that originates in the tropical Pacific region and affects ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide. Under the influence of global warming, the mean climate of the Pacific region will probably undergo significant changes. The tropical easterly trade winds are expected to weaken; surface ocean temperatures are expected to warm fastest near the equator and more slowly farther away; the equatorial thermocline that marks the transition between the wind-mixed upper ocean and deeper layers is expected to shoal; and the temperature gradients across the thermocline are expected to become steeper. Year-to-year ENSO variability is controlled by a delicate balance of amplifying and damping feedbacks, and one or more of the physical processes that are responsible for determining the characteristics of ENSO will probably be modified by climate change. Therefore, despite considerable progress in our understanding of the impact of climate change on many of the processes that contribute to El Nĩo variability, it is not yet possible to say whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency of events will change.
AB - The El Nĩo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation that originates in the tropical Pacific region and affects ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide. Under the influence of global warming, the mean climate of the Pacific region will probably undergo significant changes. The tropical easterly trade winds are expected to weaken; surface ocean temperatures are expected to warm fastest near the equator and more slowly farther away; the equatorial thermocline that marks the transition between the wind-mixed upper ocean and deeper layers is expected to shoal; and the temperature gradients across the thermocline are expected to become steeper. Year-to-year ENSO variability is controlled by a delicate balance of amplifying and damping feedbacks, and one or more of the physical processes that are responsible for determining the characteristics of ENSO will probably be modified by climate change. Therefore, despite considerable progress in our understanding of the impact of climate change on many of the processes that contribute to El Nĩo variability, it is not yet possible to say whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency of events will change.
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U2 - 10.1038/ngeo868
DO - 10.1038/ngeo868
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:77954851195
SN - 1752-0894
VL - 3
SP - 391
EP - 397
JO - Nature Geoscience
JF - Nature Geoscience
IS - 6
ER -