TY - JOUR
T1 - The evolution of rotation group bias
T2 - Will the real unemployment rate please stand up?
AU - Krueger, Alan B.
AU - Mas, Alexandre
AU - Niu, Xiaotong
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
PY - 2017/5/1
Y1 - 2017/5/1
N2 - We document that rotation group bias-the tendency for the unemployment rate to vary systematically by month in sample-in the Current Population Survey (CPS) has worsened over time. Estimated unemployment rates for earlier rotation groups have grown sharply relative to later rotation groups; both should be nationally representative samples. This bias increased discretely after the 1994 CPS redesign, and rising nonresponse rates are likely a significant contributor. Survey nonresponse increased after the redesign, mirroring the evolution of rotation group bias. Consistent with this explanation, rotation group bias for households that responded in all eight interviews remained stable over time.
AB - We document that rotation group bias-the tendency for the unemployment rate to vary systematically by month in sample-in the Current Population Survey (CPS) has worsened over time. Estimated unemployment rates for earlier rotation groups have grown sharply relative to later rotation groups; both should be nationally representative samples. This bias increased discretely after the 1994 CPS redesign, and rising nonresponse rates are likely a significant contributor. Survey nonresponse increased after the redesign, mirroring the evolution of rotation group bias. Consistent with this explanation, rotation group bias for households that responded in all eight interviews remained stable over time.
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U2 - 10.1162/REST_a_00630
DO - 10.1162/REST_a_00630
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85018729090
SN - 0034-6535
VL - 99
SP - 258
EP - 264
JO - Review of Economics and Statistics
JF - Review of Economics and Statistics
IS - 2
ER -