The effects of strain heterology on the epidemiology of equine influenza in a vaccinated population

A. W. Park, J. L.N. Wood, J. M. Daly, J. R. Newton, K. Glass, W. Henley, J. A. Mumford, B. T. Grenfell

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

40 Scopus citations

Abstract

We assess the effects of strain heterology (strains that are immunologically similar but not identical) on equine influenza in a vaccinated population. Using data relating to individual animals, for both homologous and heterologous vaccinees, we estimate distributions for the latent and infectious periods, quantify the risk of becoming infected in terms of the quantity of cross-reactive antibodies to a key surface protein of the virus (haemagglutinin) and estimate the probability of excreting virus (i.e. becoming infectious) given that infection has occurred. The data suggest that the infectious period, the risk of becoming infected (for a given vaccine-induced level of cross-reactive antibodies) and the probability of excreting virus are increased for heterologously vaccinated animals when compared with homologously vaccinated animals. The data are used to parameterize a modified susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered/resistant (SEIR) model, which shows that these relatively small differences combine to have a large effect at the population level, where populations of heterologous vaccinees face a significantly increased risk of an epidemic occurring.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1547-1555
Number of pages9
JournalProceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Volume271
Issue number1548
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 7 2004

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)

Keywords

  • Epidemiology
  • Equine influenza
  • Heterology
  • Stochastic model

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