TY - JOUR
T1 - The effect of the surface wind field representation in the operational storm surge model of the National Hurricane Center
AU - Mayo, Talea
AU - Lin, Ning
N1 - Funding Information:
Funding: Support for this work was provided for T.M. and N.L. by the Rockefeller Foundation and the National Science Foundation under Award EAR-1520683. Additional support was provided for T.M. by an Early Career Research Fellowship from the Gulf Research Program of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the Gulf Research Program of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 by the authors.
PY - 2019
Y1 - 2019
N2 - The Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model is the operational storm surge model of the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Previous studies have found that the SLOSH model estimates storm surges with an accuracy of ±20%. In this study, through hindcasts of historical storms, we assess the accuracy of the SLOSH model for four coastal regions in the Northeastern United States. We investigate the potential to improve this accuracy through modification of the wind field representation. We modify the surface background wind field, the parametric wind profile, and the maximum wind speed based on empirical, physical, and observational data. We find that on average the SLOSH model underestimates maximum storm surge heights by 22%. The modifications to the surface background wind field and the parametric wind profile have minor impacts; however, the effect of the modification to maximum wind speed is significant-it increases the variance in the SLOSH model estimates of maximum storm surges, but improves its accuracy overall. We recommend that observed values of maximum wind speed be used in SLOSH model simulations when possible.
AB - The Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model is the operational storm surge model of the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Previous studies have found that the SLOSH model estimates storm surges with an accuracy of ±20%. In this study, through hindcasts of historical storms, we assess the accuracy of the SLOSH model for four coastal regions in the Northeastern United States. We investigate the potential to improve this accuracy through modification of the wind field representation. We modify the surface background wind field, the parametric wind profile, and the maximum wind speed based on empirical, physical, and observational data. We find that on average the SLOSH model underestimates maximum storm surge heights by 22%. The modifications to the surface background wind field and the parametric wind profile have minor impacts; however, the effect of the modification to maximum wind speed is significant-it increases the variance in the SLOSH model estimates of maximum storm surges, but improves its accuracy overall. We recommend that observed values of maximum wind speed be used in SLOSH model simulations when possible.
KW - Maximum wind speed
KW - Parametric wind profile
KW - SLOSH model
KW - Storm surge
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85069823717&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85069823717&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/ATMOS10040193
DO - 10.3390/ATMOS10040193
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85069823717
SN - 2073-4433
VL - 10
JO - ATMOSPHERE
JF - ATMOSPHERE
IS - 4
M1 - 193
ER -