The demographic impact of changes in contraceptive practice in Third World populations

Two questions are posed: how much would fertility decline if unwanted births were prevented? How much would unwanted fertility decline if contraceptive practice improved? Data collected from eight developing countries in the demographic and health surveys suggest that unless wanted fertility declines further, the opportunity to reduce total fertility is largely limited to the extent of unwanted fertility in a population. Even in a country like Peru, where a third of births are reported unwanted, the potential for reducing total fertility by increasing effective contraceptive use is very limited. Develops a methodology appropriate for the general objective of determining the effect on fertility of improvements in contraceptive practice among those not wanting more births. -Authors