The conjunction fallacy: A misunderstanding about conjunction?

Katya Tentori, Nicolao Bonini, Daniel Osherson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

65 Scopus citations

Abstract

It is easy to construct pairs of sentences X, Y that lead many people to ascribe higher probability to the conjunction X-and-Y than to the conjuncts X, Y. Whether an error is thereby committed depends on reasoners' interpretation of the expressions "probability" and "and." We report two experiments designed to clarify the normative status of typical responses to conjunction problems.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)467-477
Number of pages11
JournalCognitive science
Volume28
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - May 2004

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Experimental and Cognitive Psychology
  • Cognitive Neuroscience
  • Artificial Intelligence

Keywords

  • Pragmatics
  • Reasoning
  • Subjective probability

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