The Atlantic Alliance: Diverging Interests, Converging Policies

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US President Donald Trump’s re-election have prompted fears about the health and durability of the NATO alliance. Such fears appear excessive. Alliance members are establishing a new equilibrium, shaped by three critical developments. Firstly, Europe is well on its way to developing a robust defence-manufacturing sector that serves US interests. Secondly, as they engage in significant rearmament, European states are on track to increase their weapons procurement from the United States. Thirdly, this increased defence effort will afford the US and Europe unique and complementary strategic and operational advantages, including industrial depth outside of the Indo-Pacific theatre and specialised capabilities that serve American interests. Increased European defence spending on the one hand, and divergent strategic priorities–Russia for the EU, China for the US–on the other are generating opportunities for transatlantic collaboration that move the allies beyond the imbalanced power relationships that once characterised NATO.