The 1992, 1994 and 1996 elections: A comment and a forecast

Alberto Alesina, Londregan John, Rosenthal Howard

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

6 Scopus citations


A model of the two-way relationship between elections and the economy, previously estimated on historical data for 1916-1988, is applied to the United States elections of 1992, 1994, and 1996. The 1992 result was a surprise to the model since the economy had performed reasonably well that election year. The midterm elections of 1994 were accurately forecast. The Republicans took control of Congress not because of unusual circumstances but because of a normal midterm cycle. President Clinton's chances in 1996 look dim given the current modest growth rate and an electoral bias favoring Republican presidential candidates. But an alternative model, keyed more to the voters choosing Clinton to balance the Republican Congress, gives him a reasonable chance of reelection.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)115-125
Number of pages11
JournalPublic Choice
Issue number1-2
StatePublished - 1996
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Sociology and Political Science
  • Economics and Econometrics


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