Taking stock seriously: Equity-market performance, government policy, and financial globalization

Layna Mosley, David Andrew Singer

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

43 Scopus citations

Abstract

Are equity markets just another facet of global finance, or are they unique in their responses to-and influences on-government policies and institutions? Recent work has explored the impact of political factors on bond market behavior and foreign direct investment, but little attention has been paid to stock markets. On the basis of the particular concerns of equity investors, we hypothesize a positive association between stock-market valuations and levels of democracy, shareholder rights, legal traditions, and capital-account liberalization, a negative association with real interest rates, and no association with fiscal deficits or surpluses. We assess our expectations by analyzing the political and institutional determinants of aggregate price-to-earnings ratios for a sample of up to 37 countries from 1985 to 2004, using both cross-sectional and time-series cross-sectional analyses. We find support for most, but not all, of our hypotheses. Our findings suggest that we must disaggregate the effects of different asset markets to understand the impact of economic globalization on government policies.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)405-425
Number of pages21
JournalInternational Studies Quarterly
Volume52
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 2008
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Sociology and Political Science
  • Political Science and International Relations

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