Stochastic prediction techniques for wind shear hazard assessment

The threat of low-altitude wind shear has prompted development of aircraft-based sensors that measure winds directly on the aircraft's intended flight path. Measurements from these devices are subject to turbulence inputs and measurement error, as well as to the underlying wind profile. Stochastic estimators are developed to process on-board Doppler sensor measurements, producing optimal estimates of the winds along the path. A stochastic prediction technique is described to predict the hazard to the aircraft from the estimates as well as the level of uncertainty of the hazard prediction. The stochastic prediction technique is demonstrated in a simulated microburst wind shear environment. Use of the technique in a decision-making process is discussed.