Staggered release policies for COVID-19 control: Costs and benefits of relaxing restrictions by age and risk

Henry Zhao; Zhilan Feng

doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108405

Staggered release policies for COVID-19 control: Costs and benefits of relaxing restrictions by age and risk

Henry Zhao, Zhilan Feng

Economics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

46 Scopus citations

Abstract

Lockdown and social distancing restrictions have been widely used as part of policy efforts aimed at controlling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Since these restrictions have a negative impact on the economy, there exists a strong incentive to relax these policies while protecting public health. Using a modified SEIR epidemiological model, this paper explores the costs and benefits associated with the sequential release of specific groups based on age and risk from lockdown and social distancing measures. The results in this paper suggest that properly designed staggered-release policies can do better than simultaneous-release policies in terms of protecting the most vulnerable members of a population, reducing health risks overall, and increasing economic activity.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	108405
Journal	Mathematical Biosciences
Volume	326
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108405
State	Published - Aug 2020

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Statistics and Probability
Modeling and Simulation
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
Immunology and Microbiology(all)
Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
Applied Mathematics

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10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108405

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title = "Staggered release policies for COVID-19 control: Costs and benefits of relaxing restrictions by age and risk",

abstract = "Lockdown and social distancing restrictions have been widely used as part of policy efforts aimed at controlling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Since these restrictions have a negative impact on the economy, there exists a strong incentive to relax these policies while protecting public health. Using a modified SEIR epidemiological model, this paper explores the costs and benefits associated with the sequential release of specific groups based on age and risk from lockdown and social distancing measures. The results in this paper suggest that properly designed staggered-release policies can do better than simultaneous-release policies in terms of protecting the most vulnerable members of a population, reducing health risks overall, and increasing economic activity.",

author = "Henry Zhao and Zhilan Feng",

note = "Funding Information: ZF{\textquoteright}s research is partially supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF), USA grant DMS-1814545 and the Independent Research & Development Program of NSF . We thank the three reviewers for constructive comments and suggestions which helped us to improve the presentation of this paper. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020 Elsevier Inc.",

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T1 - Staggered release policies for COVID-19 control

T2 - Costs and benefits of relaxing restrictions by age and risk

AU - Zhao, Henry

AU - Feng, Zhilan

N1 - Funding Information: ZF’s research is partially supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF), USA grant DMS-1814545 and the Independent Research & Development Program of NSF . We thank the three reviewers for constructive comments and suggestions which helped us to improve the presentation of this paper. Publisher Copyright: © 2020 Elsevier Inc.

PY - 2020/8

Y1 - 2020/8

N2 - Lockdown and social distancing restrictions have been widely used as part of policy efforts aimed at controlling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Since these restrictions have a negative impact on the economy, there exists a strong incentive to relax these policies while protecting public health. Using a modified SEIR epidemiological model, this paper explores the costs and benefits associated with the sequential release of specific groups based on age and risk from lockdown and social distancing measures. The results in this paper suggest that properly designed staggered-release policies can do better than simultaneous-release policies in terms of protecting the most vulnerable members of a population, reducing health risks overall, and increasing economic activity.

AB - Lockdown and social distancing restrictions have been widely used as part of policy efforts aimed at controlling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Since these restrictions have a negative impact on the economy, there exists a strong incentive to relax these policies while protecting public health. Using a modified SEIR epidemiological model, this paper explores the costs and benefits associated with the sequential release of specific groups based on age and risk from lockdown and social distancing measures. The results in this paper suggest that properly designed staggered-release policies can do better than simultaneous-release policies in terms of protecting the most vulnerable members of a population, reducing health risks overall, and increasing economic activity.

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Staggered release policies for COVID-19 control: Costs and benefits of relaxing restrictions by age and risk

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