TY - JOUR
T1 - Socio-demographic factors shaping the future global health burden from air pollution
AU - Yang, Hui
AU - Huang, Xinyuan
AU - Westervelt, Daniel M.
AU - Horowitz, Larry
AU - Peng, Wei
N1 - Funding Information:
H.Y. and W.P. thank the funding support from the Monash-Penn State Collaboration Developmental Funds. W.P. acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 2108984. D.M.W. was supported by the National Science Foundation Office of International Science and Engineering Grant No. 2020677. We thank Noah Scovronick, Mark Budolfson, and W.P.’s research group for feedback on this work.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
PY - 2023/1
Y1 - 2023/1
N2 - Exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) currently contributes to millions of global premature deaths every year. Here, we assess the pollution and health futures in five 2015–2100 scenarios using an integrated modelling framework. On the basis of a global Earth System Model (GFDL-ESM4.1), we find lower ambient PM2.5 concentrations, both globally and regionally, in future scenarios that are less fossil fuel-dependent and with more stringent pollution controls. Across the five scenarios, the global cumulative PM2.5-related deaths vary by a factor of two. However, the projected deaths are not necessarily lower in scenarios with less warming or cleaner air. This is because while reducing PM2.5 pollution lowers the exposure level, increasing the size of vulnerable populations can significantly increase PM2.5-related deaths. For most countries, we find that changes in socio-demographic factors (for example, ageing and declining baseline mortality rates) play a more important role than the exposure level in shaping future health burden.
AB - Exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) currently contributes to millions of global premature deaths every year. Here, we assess the pollution and health futures in five 2015–2100 scenarios using an integrated modelling framework. On the basis of a global Earth System Model (GFDL-ESM4.1), we find lower ambient PM2.5 concentrations, both globally and regionally, in future scenarios that are less fossil fuel-dependent and with more stringent pollution controls. Across the five scenarios, the global cumulative PM2.5-related deaths vary by a factor of two. However, the projected deaths are not necessarily lower in scenarios with less warming or cleaner air. This is because while reducing PM2.5 pollution lowers the exposure level, increasing the size of vulnerable populations can significantly increase PM2.5-related deaths. For most countries, we find that changes in socio-demographic factors (for example, ageing and declining baseline mortality rates) play a more important role than the exposure level in shaping future health burden.
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U2 - 10.1038/s41893-022-00976-8
DO - 10.1038/s41893-022-00976-8
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85140489852
SN - 2398-9629
VL - 6
SP - 58
EP - 68
JO - Nature Sustainability
JF - Nature Sustainability
IS - 1
ER -