Simulation and prediction of category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the high-resolution GFDL HiFLOR coupled climate model

Hiroyuki Murakami, Gabriel Andres Vecchi, Seth Underwood, Thomas L. Delworth, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Whit G. Anderson, Jan Huey Chen, Richard G. Gudgel, Lucas M. Harris, Shian Jiann Lin, Fanrong Zeng

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

110 Scopus citations

Abstract

A new high-resolution Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model [the High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) model (HiFLOR)] has been developed and used to investigate potential skill in simulation and prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity. HiFLOR comprises high-resolution (~25-km mesh) atmosphere and land components and a more moderate-resolution (~100-km mesh) sea ice and ocean component. HiFLOR was developed from FLOR by decreasing the horizontal grid spacing of the atmospheric component from 50 to 25 km, while leaving most of the subgrid-scale physical parameterizations unchanged. Compared with FLOR, HiFLOR yields a more realistic simulation of the structure, global distribution, and seasonal and interannual variations of TCs, as well as a comparable simulation of storm-induced cold wakes and TC-genesis modulation induced by the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). Moreover, HiFLOR is able to simulate and predict extremely intense TCs (Saffir-Simpson hurricane categories 4 and 5) and their interannual variations, which represents the first time a global coupled model has been able to simulate such extremely intense TCs in a multicentury simulation, sea surface temperature restoring simulations, and retrospective seasonal predictions.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)9058-9079
Number of pages22
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume28
Issue number23
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2015

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

Keywords

  • Atm/Ocean Structure/Phenomena
  • Climate models
  • Climate prediction
  • Forecasting
  • Hindcasts
  • Models and modeling
  • Tropical cyclones

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    Murakami, H., Vecchi, G. A., Underwood, S., Delworth, T. L., Wittenberg, A. T., Anderson, W. G., Chen, J. H., Gudgel, R. G., Harris, L. M., Lin, S. J., & Zeng, F. (2015). Simulation and prediction of category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the high-resolution GFDL HiFLOR coupled climate model. Journal of Climate, 28(23), 9058-9079. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0216.1