Short-term probabilistic forecasting of meso-scale near-surface urban temperature fields

Byeongseong Choi, Mario Bergés, Elie Bou-Zeid, Matteo Pozzi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

This paper introduces a probabilistic approach to spatio-temporal high resolution meso-scale modeling of near-surface temperature and applies it to regions of dimension about 150∼200 km, with 1 km grid spacing and 30-min interval. Our probabilistic approach, based on linear Gaussian models and dimensionality reduction, can accurately forecast short-term temperature fields and serve as a computationally less expensive alternative to physics-based models that necessitate high-performance computing. The probabilistic models here are calibrated from simulations of a physics-based model, the Princeton Urban Canopy Model, coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-PUCM). We assess the performance of the calibrated models to forecast short-term near-surface temperature in various cases. In the numerical campaign, our models achieve 0.97–1.13 °C root mean squared error (RMSE) for 24-hours ahead forecast; generating three days of forecast takes between 20 and 170 sec on a single processor (Intel Xeon E5-2690 v4@2.60GHz). Hence, the proposed approach provides predictions at relatively high accuracy and low computational cost.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number105189
JournalEnvironmental Modelling and Software
Volume145
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 2021

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Software
  • Environmental Engineering
  • Ecological Modeling

Keywords

  • Kalman filter
  • Latent space
  • Probabilistic model
  • Spatio-temporal model
  • State-space model
  • Urban heat

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