Serological survey to determine measles and rubella immunity gaps across age and geographic locations in The Gambia: a study protocol

Vaccine coverage and disease surveillance data are valuable for monitoring protection against vaccine-preventable diseases; however, they do not directly measure population immunity. High-quality, representative serological studies can provide key insights into immunity gaps, outbreak susceptibility, and inform targeted vaccination strategies, even in high-performing immunization programs. This study aims to estimate location-specific and age-specific immunity profiles for measles and rubella while evaluating the predictive value of indirect immunity estimates derived from vaccination and surveillance data against direct serological measurements. Additionally, it seeks to model the risk of measles outbreaks and assess the impact of mitigation strategies. A multi-stage, stratified cluster sampling design will be implemented across six districts in The Gambia’s North Bank and Upper River Regions. Survey clusters (i.e. 5 km × 5 km areas) encompassing all settlements within their boundaries will be selected, proportionally to district population sizes. Cluster selection ensures representativeness of both the population and vaccine coverage within each district. Based on detecting a 10% difference in protective immunity across vaccine coverage levels, power analysis assumes an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.01. In each cluster, 70 children aged 9 months to 14 years will be recruited, yielding a total sample size of 1,750 children across 25 selected clusters. Dried blood samples will be collected and tested for anti-measles and anti-rubella IgG using enzyme immunoassays (EIA). District-specific measles seroprevalence will be estimated using a hierarchical spatial model. This study will generate key evidence needed to refine immunization strategies and reduce the risk of measles and rubella outbreaks.