TY - JOUR
T1 - Sensitivity of northwest Australian tropical cyclone activity to ITCZ migration since 500 CE
AU - Denniston, Rhawn F.
AU - Ummenhofer, Caroline C.
AU - Emanuel, Kerry
AU - Ingrosso, Roberto
AU - Pausata, Francesco S.R.
AU - Wanamaker, Alan D.
AU - Lachniet, Matthew S.
AU - Carr, Kenneth T.
AU - Asmerom, Yemane
AU - Polyak, Victor J.
AU - Nott, Jonathan
AU - Zhang, Wei
AU - Villarini, Gabriele
AU - Cugley, John
AU - Brooks, Darren
AU - Woods, David
AU - Humphreys, William F.
N1 - Funding Information:
Acknowledgments:TheownersandleaseholdersoftheCarltonHillStationandthe MiriuwungGajerrongpeopleareacknowledged.Assistancewithcavingand/orrainwater samplingwasprovidedbyD.Cavlovic,S.Stevets,L.Irvine,D.Balint,andtheExmouth DistrictHighSchool.Weacknowledgeuseofthefollowingdatasets:ERA5databyECMWF providedthroughtheCopernicusClimateChangeServices(https://climate.copernicus. eu/climate-reanalysis);NCEPReanalysisdataprovidedbyNOAA/OAR/ESRLPSL,Boulder, Colorado,USA,athttps://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html;IBTrACS databytheNOAANationalCentersforEnvironmentalInformation;AustralianGridded ClimateData(AGCD)v2.0.0Snapshot(1900-01-01to2020-05-31)downloadedfromNCI athttp://dx.doi.org/10.25914/6009600786063;andWesternAustraliaDepartmentof Waterand Environmental Regulation forEight Mile Millrainwater data. We also acknowledgetheMaxPlanckInstituteforMeteorologyfortheMPI-ESM,informationon whichisavailableathttps://mpimet.mpg.de/en/science/models/mpi-esm.Funding:This studywasfundedbyU.S.NationalScienceFoundation(NSF)DivisionofAtmosphericand GeospaceSciences(AGS)grants1502917and1602544(toR.F.D.),1602455(toC.C.U.), 1602468(toA.D.W.),and1602520(toY.A.);NSFICERgrants1854929(toK.E.)and1663704 (toC.C.U.);anNSFGraduateResearchFellowship(toK.T.C.);theWoodsHole OceanographicInstituteIndependentResearchandDevelopmentProgram(toC.C.U.)and theJamesE.andBarbaraV.MoltzFellowship(toC.C.U.);andgrantsfromtheCenterfor GlobalandRegionalEnvironmentalResearch(toR.F.D.)andCornellCollege(toR.F.D.). F.S.R.P.acknowledgesfinancialsupportfromtheNaturalSciencesandEngineering Research Council of Canada (grant RGPIN201804981) and the Fonds de recherche du Québec–Natureettechnologies(2020NC268559).Authorcontributions:R.F.D.and C.C.U.conceivedthestudy.R.F.D.,J.C.,D.W.,D.B.,andW.F.H.conductedthefieldwork. C.C.U.analyzedTCtracksandSSTs.R.I.andF.S.R.P.investigatedITCZpositionandTC tracksanddefinedyearsinERA5andMPI-ESMdataforuseinTCdownscalingsimulations byK.E.A.D.W.analyzedstableisotopes,andR.F.D.,V.J.P.,andY.A.performedtheU-series dating.M.S.L.calculatedcorrelationstatistics.K.T.C.analyzedmoisturesourcesand transport.J.N., W.Z., andG.V.offeredinsightthathelped guidethe research. R.F.D. wrote theoriginaldraft,whichwaseditedbyR.F.D.,C.C.U.,K.E.,R.I.,F.S.R.P.,A.D.W.,M.S.L.,Y.A., V.J.P.,andK.T.C.Competinginterests:Theauthorsdeclarethattheyhavenocompeting interests.Dataandmaterialsavailability:Alldataneededtoevaluatetheconclusionsin thepaperarepresentinthepaper,theSupplementaryMaterials,and/orattheNational CentersforEnvironmentalInformationwebsitehostedbytheNationalOceanicand AtmosphericAdministration(www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/study/36853).
Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2023 The Authors, some rights reserved;
PY - 2023/1
Y1 - 2023/1
N2 - Tropical cyclones (TCs) regularly form in association with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and thus, its positioning has implications for global TC activity. While the poleward extent of the ITCZ has varied markedly over past centuries, the sensitivity with which TCs responded remains poorly understood from the proxy record, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we present a high-resolution, composite stalagmite record of ITCZ migrations over tropical Australia for the past 1500 years. When integrated with a TC reconstruction from the Australian subtropics, this time series, along with downscaled climate model simulations, provides an unprecedented examination of the dependence of subtropical TC activity on meridional shifts in the ITCZ. TCs tracked the ITCZ at multidecadal to centennial scales, with a more southward position enhancing TC-derived rainfall in the subtropics. TCs may play an increasingly important role in Western Australia’s moisture budgets as subtropical aridity increases due to anthropogenic warming.
AB - Tropical cyclones (TCs) regularly form in association with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and thus, its positioning has implications for global TC activity. While the poleward extent of the ITCZ has varied markedly over past centuries, the sensitivity with which TCs responded remains poorly understood from the proxy record, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we present a high-resolution, composite stalagmite record of ITCZ migrations over tropical Australia for the past 1500 years. When integrated with a TC reconstruction from the Australian subtropics, this time series, along with downscaled climate model simulations, provides an unprecedented examination of the dependence of subtropical TC activity on meridional shifts in the ITCZ. TCs tracked the ITCZ at multidecadal to centennial scales, with a more southward position enhancing TC-derived rainfall in the subtropics. TCs may play an increasingly important role in Western Australia’s moisture budgets as subtropical aridity increases due to anthropogenic warming.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85146141027&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85146141027&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1126/sciadv.add9832
DO - 10.1126/sciadv.add9832
M3 - Article
C2 - 36630513
AN - SCOPUS:85146141027
SN - 2375-2548
VL - 9
JO - Science Advances
JF - Science Advances
IS - 2
M1 - eadd9832
ER -