An important epidemiological problem is to estimate the decay through time of immunity following infection. For this purpose, we propose a semiparametric time series epidemic model that is based on the mechanism of the susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible system to analyse complex time series data. We develop an estimation method for the model. Simulations show that the approach proposed can capture the non-linearity of epidemics as well as estimate the decay of immunity. We apply our approach to influenza in France and the Netherlands and show a rapid decline in immunity following infection, which agrees with recent spatiotemporal analyses.
|Original language||English (US)|
|Number of pages||14|
|Journal||Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics|
|State||Published - May 23 2005|
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Statistics and Probability