Seasonal prediction skill of northern extratropical surface temperature driven by the stratosphere

Liwei Jia, Xiaosong Yang, Gabriel Andres Vecchi, Richard Gudgel, Thomas Delworth, Stephan Andreas Fueglistaler, Pu Lin, Adam A. Scaife, Seth Underwood, Shian Jiann Lin

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39 Scopus citations


This study explores the role of the stratosphere as a source of seasonal predictability of surface climate over Northern Hemisphere extratropics both in the observations and climate model predictions. A suite of numerical experiments, including climate simulations and retrospective forecasts, are set up to isolate the role of the stratosphere in seasonal predictive skill of extratropical near-surface land temperature. It is shown that most of the lead-0-month spring predictive skill of land temperature over extratropics, particularly over northern Eurasia, stems from stratospheric initialization. It is further revealed that this predictive skill of extratropical land temperature arises from skillful prediction of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The dynamical connection between the stratosphere and troposphere is also demonstrated by the significant correlation between the stratospheric polar vortex and sea level pressure anomalies, as well as the migration of the stratospheric zonal wind anomalies to the lower troposphere.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)4463-4475
Number of pages13
JournalJournal of Climate
Issue number12
StatePublished - Jun 1 2017

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science


  • Arctic Oscillation
  • Climate prediction
  • Climate variability
  • Seasonal forecasting
  • Stratospheric circulation
  • Temperature


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