Seasonal predictability of extratropical storm tracks in GFDL's high-resolution climate prediction model

Xiaosong Yang, Gabriel Andres Vecchi, Rich G. Gudgel, Thomas L. Delworth, Shaoqing Zhang, Anthony Rosati, Liwei Jia, William F. Stern, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Sarah Kapnick, Rym Msadek, Seth D. Underwood, Fanrong Zeng, Whit Anderson, Venkatramani Balaji

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

52 Scopus citations

Abstract

The seasonal predictability of extratropical storm tracks in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL)'s high-resolution climate model has been investigated using an average predictability time analysis. The leading predictable components of extratropical storm tracks are the ENSO-related spatial patterns for both boreal winter and summer, and the second predictable components are mostly due to changes in external radiative forcing and multidecadal oceanic variability. These two predictable components for both seasons show significant correlation skill for all leads from 0 to 9 months, while the skill of predicting the boreal winter storm track is consistently higher than that of the austral winter. The predictable components of extratropical storm tracks are dynamically consistent with the predictable components of the upper troposphere jet flow for both seasons. Over the regionwith strong storm-track signals in NorthAmerica, the model is able to predict the changes in statistics of extremes connected to storm-track changes (e.g., extreme low and high sea level pressure and extreme 2-m air temperature) in response to different ENSOphases. These results point toward the possibility of providing skillful seasonal predictions of the statistics of extratropical extremes over land using high-resolution coupled models.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)3592-3611
Number of pages20
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume28
Issue number9
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2015

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

Keywords

  • Climate prediction
  • Coupled models
  • ENSO
  • Extratropical cyclones
  • Forecast verification/skill
  • Interannual variability

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    Yang, X., Vecchi, G. A., Gudgel, R. G., Delworth, T. L., Zhang, S., Rosati, A., Jia, L., Stern, W. F., Wittenberg, A. T., Kapnick, S., Msadek, R., Underwood, S. D., Zeng, F., Anderson, W., & Balaji, V. (2015). Seasonal predictability of extratropical storm tracks in GFDL's high-resolution climate prediction model. Journal of Climate, 28(9), 3592-3611. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00517.1