SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak Dynamics in an Isolated US Military Recruit Training Center with Rigorous Prevention Measures

Rhonda A. Lizewski, Rachel S.G. Sealfon, Sang Woo Park, Gregory R. Smith, Chad K. Porter, Ana S. Gonzalez-Reiche, Yongchao Ge, Clare M. Miller, Carl W. Goforth, Hanna Pincas, Michael S. Termini, Irene Ramos, Venugopalan D. Nair, Stephen E. Lizewski, Hala Alshammary, Regina Z. Cer, Hua Wei Chen, Mary Catherine George, Catherine E. Arnold, Lindsay A. GlangKyle A. Long, Francisco Malagon, Jan J. Marayag, Edgar Nunez, Gregory K. Rice, Ernesto Santa Ana, Megan A. Schilling, Darci R. Smith, Victor A. Sugiharto, Peifang Sun, Adriana Van De Guchte, Zenab Khan, Jayeeta Dutta, Sindhu Vangeti, Logan J. Voegtly, Dawn L. Weir, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Olga G. Troyanskaya, Kimberly A. Bishop-Lilly, Bryan T. Grenfell, Harm Van Bakel, Andrew G. Letizia, Stuart C. Sealfon

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

7 Scopus citations


Background: Marine recruits training at Parris Island experienced an unexpectedly high rate of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, despite preventive measures including a supervised, 2-week, pre-entry quarantine. We characterize SARS-CoV-2 transmission in this cohort. Methods: Between May and November 2020, we monitored 2,469 unvaccinated, mostly male, Marine recruits prospectively during basic training. If participants tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) at the end of quarantine, they were transferred to the training site in segregated companies and underwent biweekly testing for 6 weeks. We assessed the effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevention measures on other respiratory infections with passive surveillance data, performed phylogenetic analysis, and modeled transmission dynamics and testing regimens. Results: Preventive measures were associated with drastically lower rates of other respiratory illnesses. However, among the trainees, 1,107 (44.8%) tested SARS-CoV-2-positive, with either mild or no symptoms. Phylogenetic analysis of viral genomes from 580 participants revealed that all cases but one were linked to five independent introductions, each characterized by accumulation of mutations across and within companies, and similar viral isolates in individuals from the same company. Variation in company transmission rates (mean reproduction number R0; 5.5 [95% confidence interval [CI], 5.0, 6.1]) could be accounted for by multiple initial cases within a company and superspreader events. Simulations indicate that frequent rapid-report testing with case isolation may minimize outbreaks. Conclusions: Transmission of wild-type SARS-CoV-2 among Marine recruits was approximately twice that seen in the community. Insights from SARS-CoV-2 outbreak dynamics and mutations spread in a remote, congregate setting may inform effective mitigation strategies.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)797-807
Number of pages11
Issue number6
StatePublished - Nov 1 2022

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Epidemiology


  • Congregate setting
  • Mathematical modeling
  • Phylogenetic analysis
  • Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
  • Superspreader events
  • Transmission dynamics
  • U.S. Military


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