TY - JOUR
T1 - Risk transfer policies and climate-induced immobility among smallholder farmers
AU - Choquette-Levy, Nicolas
AU - Wildemeersch, Matthias
AU - Oppenheimer, Michael
AU - Levin, Simon A.
N1 - Funding Information:
We authors thank four anonymous reviewers for helpful comments that improved the quality of this manuscript. N.C.-L. thanks the Center for Policy Research on Energy and the Environment at Princeton University and the Young Summer Scientists Program at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis for financial and organizational support, and the National Academy of Sciences and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (no. 752-2020-077) for financial support.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
PY - 2021/12
Y1 - 2021/12
N2 - Climate change is anticipated to impact smallholder farmer livelihoods substantially. However, empirical evidence is inconclusive regarding how increased climate stress affects smallholder farmers’ deployment of various livelihood strategies, including rural–urban migration. Here we use an agent-based model to show that in a South Asian agricultural community experiencing a 1.5 oC temperature increase by 2050, climate impacts are likely to decrease household income in 2050 by an average of 28%, with fewer households investing in both economic migration and cash crops, relative to a stationary climate. Pairing a small cash transfer with risk transfer mechanisms significantly increases the adoption of migration and cash crops, improves community incomes and reduces community inequality. While specific results depend on contextual factors such as risk preferences and climate risk exposure, these interventions are robust in improving adaptation outcomes and alleviating immobility, by addressing the intersection of risk aversion, financial constraints and climate impacts.
AB - Climate change is anticipated to impact smallholder farmer livelihoods substantially. However, empirical evidence is inconclusive regarding how increased climate stress affects smallholder farmers’ deployment of various livelihood strategies, including rural–urban migration. Here we use an agent-based model to show that in a South Asian agricultural community experiencing a 1.5 oC temperature increase by 2050, climate impacts are likely to decrease household income in 2050 by an average of 28%, with fewer households investing in both economic migration and cash crops, relative to a stationary climate. Pairing a small cash transfer with risk transfer mechanisms significantly increases the adoption of migration and cash crops, improves community incomes and reduces community inequality. While specific results depend on contextual factors such as risk preferences and climate risk exposure, these interventions are robust in improving adaptation outcomes and alleviating immobility, by addressing the intersection of risk aversion, financial constraints and climate impacts.
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U2 - 10.1038/s41558-021-01205-4
DO - 10.1038/s41558-021-01205-4
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85119658567
SN - 1758-678X
VL - 11
SP - 1046
EP - 1054
JO - Nature Climate Change
JF - Nature Climate Change
IS - 12
ER -