@article{08c88048ab7f4c3698a22f724e5b4077,
title = "Response of Extreme Rainfall for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Undergoing Extratropical Transition to Projected Climate Change: Hurricane Irene (2011)",
abstract = "Extreme rainfall and flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) have large societal impacts, both in fatalities and economic losses. This study examines the response of TC rainfall to climate change projected under future anthropogenic greenhouse emissions, focusing on Hurricane Irene, which produced severe flooding across the Northeastern United States in August 2011. Numerical simulations are made with the Weather Research and Forecasting model, placing Irene in the present-day climate and one projected for the end of 21st century climate represented by Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Projected future changes to surface and atmospheric temperature lead to a storm rainfall increase of 32% relative to the control run, exceeding the rate expected by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation given a ~3-K lower atmospheric warming. Analyses of the atmospheric water balance highlight contributions to the increase in rainfall rate from both increased circulation strength and atmospheric moisture. Storm rainfall rate shows contrasting response to global warming during TC and extratropical transition periods. During the TC phase, Irene shows a significant increase of storm rainfall rate in inner core regions. This increase shifts to outer rainbands as Irene undergoes extratropical transition, collocated with the maximum tangential wind increase and the change of secondary circulation strength. Changes of storm track from the control run to global warming projections play a role in the change of spatial rainfall pattern. Distinct roles of surface and atmospheric warming in storm rainfall and structure changes are also examined.",
keywords = "climate change, extratropical transition, tropical cyclone rainfall",
author = "M. Liu and L. Yang and Smith, {J. A.} and Vecchi, {G. A.}",
note = "Funding Information: The authors thank high-performance computing support from Princeton Research Computing at Princeton University and Cheyenne (Project UPRI0007 and Project UPRI0004) provided by Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), sponsored by the National Science Foundation. The WRF-ARW model is developed by NCAR (available through http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/). FNL data are obtained from Research Data Archive (RDA) managed by CISL at NCAR (available through https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds083.2/. The CESM data are also obtained from RDA (available through https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds316.0/). This work was supported in part by Award NA14OAR4830101 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, and Grant EAR1520683 from National Science Foundation2 and Award 80NSSC19K0482 from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. This work was supported in part by the Carbon Mitigation Initiative and the School of Engineering and Applied Sciences at Princeton University. Funding Information: The authors thank high‐performance computing support from Princeton Research Computing at Princeton University and Cheyenne (Project UPRI0007 and Project UPRI0004) provided by Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), sponsored by the National Science Foundation. The WRF‐ARW model is developed by NCAR (available through http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/ ). FNL data are obtained from Research Data Archive (RDA) managed by CISL at NCAR (available through https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds083.2/ . The CESM data are also obtained from RDA (available through https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds316.0/ ). This work was supported in part by Award NA14OAR4830101 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, and Grant EAR1520683 from National Science Foundation2 and Award 80NSSC19K0482 from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. This work was supported in part by the Carbon Mitigation Initiative and the School of Engineering and Applied Sciences at Princeton University. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright}2020 The Authors.",
year = "2020",
month = mar,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1029/2019EF001360",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "8",
journal = "Earth's Future",
issn = "2328-4277",
publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Inc.",
number = "3",
}