TY - JOUR
T1 - Relative role of community transmission and campus contagion in driving the spread of SARS-CoV-2
T2 - Lessons from Princeton University
AU - Park, Sang Woo
AU - Daskalaki, Irini
AU - Izzo, Robin M.
AU - Aranovich, Irina
AU - te Velthuis, Aartjan J.W.
AU - Notterman, Daniel A.
AU - Metcalf, C. E.Jessica
AU - Grenfell, Bryan T.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
PY - 2023/7/1
Y1 - 2023/7/1
N2 - Mathematical models have played a crucial role in exploring and guiding pandemic responses. University campuses present a particularly well-documented case for institutional outbreaks, thereby providing a unique opportunity to understand detailed patterns of pathogen spread. Here, we present descriptive and modeling analyses of SARS-CoV-2 transmission on the Princeton University (PU) campus-this model was used throughout the pandemic to inform policy decisions and operational guidelines for the university campus. Epidemic patterns between the university campus and surrounding communities exhibit strong spatiotemporal correlations. Mathematical modeling analysis further suggests that the amount of on-campus transmission was likely limited during much of the wider pandemic until the end of 2021. Finally, we find that a superspreading event likely played a major role in driving the Omicron variant outbreak on the PU campus during the spring semester of the 2021-2022 academic year. Despite large numbers of cases on campus in this period, case levels in surrounding communities remained low, suggesting that there was little spillover transmission from campus to the local community.
AB - Mathematical models have played a crucial role in exploring and guiding pandemic responses. University campuses present a particularly well-documented case for institutional outbreaks, thereby providing a unique opportunity to understand detailed patterns of pathogen spread. Here, we present descriptive and modeling analyses of SARS-CoV-2 transmission on the Princeton University (PU) campus-this model was used throughout the pandemic to inform policy decisions and operational guidelines for the university campus. Epidemic patterns between the university campus and surrounding communities exhibit strong spatiotemporal correlations. Mathematical modeling analysis further suggests that the amount of on-campus transmission was likely limited during much of the wider pandemic until the end of 2021. Finally, we find that a superspreading event likely played a major role in driving the Omicron variant outbreak on the PU campus during the spring semester of the 2021-2022 academic year. Despite large numbers of cases on campus in this period, case levels in surrounding communities remained low, suggesting that there was little spillover transmission from campus to the local community.
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U2 - 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad201
DO - 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad201
M3 - Article
C2 - 37457892
AN - SCOPUS:85177486906
SN - 2752-6542
VL - 2
JO - PNAS Nexus
JF - PNAS Nexus
IS - 7
M1 - pgad201
ER -