Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates

Kieran T. Bhatia, Gabriel Andres Vecchi, Thomas R. Knutson, Hiroyuki Murakami, James Kossin, Keith W. Dixon, Carolyn E. Whitlock

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

22 Scopus citations

Abstract

Tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify are typically associated with the highest forecast errors and cause a disproportionate amount of human and financial losses. Therefore, it is crucial to understand if, and why, there are observed upward trends in tropical cyclone intensification rates. Here, we utilize two observational datasets to calculate 24-hour wind speed changes over the period 1982–2009. We compare the observed trends to natural variability in bias-corrected, high-resolution, global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of tropical cyclone intensification. Both observed datasets show significant increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates in the Atlantic basin that are highly unusual compared to model-based estimates of internal climate variations. Our results suggest a detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing and reveal a need for more reliable data before detecting a robust trend at the global scale.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number635
JournalNature communications
Volume10
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2019

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Chemistry(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Physics and Astronomy(all)

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    Bhatia, K. T., Vecchi, G. A., Knutson, T. R., Murakami, H., Kossin, J., Dixon, K. W., & Whitlock, C. E. (2019). Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates. Nature communications, 10(1), [635]. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08471-z