Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems

Stephanie A. Henson, Claudie Beaulieu, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Matthew Long, Roland Séférian, Jerry Tjiputra, Jorge Louis Sarmiento

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

96 Scopus citations

Abstract

Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number14682
JournalNature communications
Volume8
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 7 2017

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Chemistry(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Physics and Astronomy(all)

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    Henson, S. A., Beaulieu, C., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., Long, M., Séférian, R., Tjiputra, J., & Sarmiento, J. L. (2017). Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems. Nature communications, 8, [14682]. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14682