Quantifying the impact of immune escape on transmission dynamics of influenza

Andrew W. Park; Janet M. Daly; Nicola S. Lewis; Derek J. Smith; James L.N. Wood; Bryan T. Grenfell

doi:10.1126/science.1175980

Quantifying the impact of immune escape on transmission dynamics of influenza

Andrew W. Park, Janet M. Daly, Nicola S. Lewis, Derek J. Smith, James L.N. Wood, Bryan T. Grenfell

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

89 Scopus citations

Abstract

Influenza virus evades prevailing natural and vaccine-induced immunity by accumulating antigenic change in the haemagglutinin surface protein. Linking amino acid substitutions in haemagglutinin epitopes to epidemiology has been problematic because of the scarcity of data connecting these scales. We use experiments on equine influenza virus to address this issue, quantifying how key parameters of viral establishment and shedding increase the probability of transmission with genetic distance between previously immunizing virus and challenge virus. Qualitatively similar patterns emerge from analyses based on antigenic distance and from a published human influenza study. Combination of the equine data and epidemiological models allows us to calculate the effective reproductive number of transmission as a function of relevant genetic change in the virus, illuminating the probability of influenza epidemics as a function of immunity.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	726-728
Number of pages	3
Journal	Science
Volume	326
Issue number	5953
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1175980
State	Published - Oct 30 2009

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

General

Access to Document

10.1126/science.1175980

Cite this

@article{9ce20af715f54ffab2f5d6de084d19cd,

title = "Quantifying the impact of immune escape on transmission dynamics of influenza",

abstract = "Influenza virus evades prevailing natural and vaccine-induced immunity by accumulating antigenic change in the haemagglutinin surface protein. Linking amino acid substitutions in haemagglutinin epitopes to epidemiology has been problematic because of the scarcity of data connecting these scales. We use experiments on equine influenza virus to address this issue, quantifying how key parameters of viral establishment and shedding increase the probability of transmission with genetic distance between previously immunizing virus and challenge virus. Qualitatively similar patterns emerge from analyses based on antigenic distance and from a published human influenza study. Combination of the equine data and epidemiological models allows us to calculate the effective reproductive number of transmission as a function of relevant genetic change in the virus, illuminating the probability of influenza epidemics as a function of immunity.",

author = "Park, {Andrew W.} and Daly, {Janet M.} and Lewis, {Nicola S.} and Smith, {Derek J.} and Wood, {James L.N.} and Grenfell, {Bryan T.}",

year = "2009",

month = oct,

day = "30",

doi = "10.1126/science.1175980",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "326",

pages = "726--728",

journal = "Science",

issn = "0036-8075",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",

number = "5953",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Quantifying the impact of immune escape on transmission dynamics of influenza

AU - Park, Andrew W.

AU - Daly, Janet M.

AU - Lewis, Nicola S.

AU - Smith, Derek J.

AU - Wood, James L.N.

AU - Grenfell, Bryan T.

PY - 2009/10/30

Y1 - 2009/10/30

N2 - Influenza virus evades prevailing natural and vaccine-induced immunity by accumulating antigenic change in the haemagglutinin surface protein. Linking amino acid substitutions in haemagglutinin epitopes to epidemiology has been problematic because of the scarcity of data connecting these scales. We use experiments on equine influenza virus to address this issue, quantifying how key parameters of viral establishment and shedding increase the probability of transmission with genetic distance between previously immunizing virus and challenge virus. Qualitatively similar patterns emerge from analyses based on antigenic distance and from a published human influenza study. Combination of the equine data and epidemiological models allows us to calculate the effective reproductive number of transmission as a function of relevant genetic change in the virus, illuminating the probability of influenza epidemics as a function of immunity.

AB - Influenza virus evades prevailing natural and vaccine-induced immunity by accumulating antigenic change in the haemagglutinin surface protein. Linking amino acid substitutions in haemagglutinin epitopes to epidemiology has been problematic because of the scarcity of data connecting these scales. We use experiments on equine influenza virus to address this issue, quantifying how key parameters of viral establishment and shedding increase the probability of transmission with genetic distance between previously immunizing virus and challenge virus. Qualitatively similar patterns emerge from analyses based on antigenic distance and from a published human influenza study. Combination of the equine data and epidemiological models allows us to calculate the effective reproductive number of transmission as a function of relevant genetic change in the virus, illuminating the probability of influenza epidemics as a function of immunity.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=70350599175&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=70350599175&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1126/science.1175980

DO - 10.1126/science.1175980

M3 - Article

C2 - 19900931

AN - SCOPUS:70350599175

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 326

SP - 726

EP - 728

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 5953

ER -

Quantifying the impact of immune escape on transmission dynamics of influenza

Abstract

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this