TY - GEN

T1 - Quantifying and Reducing Bias in Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Structured Anomalies

AU - Chitra, Uthsav

AU - Ding, Kimberly

AU - Lee, Jasper C.H.

AU - Raphael, Benjamin J.

N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2021 by the author(s)

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - Anomaly estimation, or the problem of finding a subset of a dataset that differs from the rest of the dataset, is a classic problem in machine learning and data mining. In both theoretical work and in applications, the anomaly is assumed to have a specific structure defined by membership in an anomaly family. For example, in temporal data the anomaly family may be time intervals, while in network data the anomaly family may be connected subgraphs. The most prominent approach for anomaly estimation is to compute the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) of the anomaly; however, it was recently observed that for normally distributed data, the MLE is a biased estimator for some anomaly families. In this work, we demonstrate that in the normal means setting, the bias of the MLE depends on the size of the anomaly family. We prove that if the number of sets in the anomaly family that contain the anomaly is sub-exponential, then the MLE is asymptotically unbiased. We also provide empirical evidence that the converse is true: if the number of such sets is exponential, then the MLE is asymptotically biased. Our analysis unifies a number of earlier results on the bias of the MLE for specific anomaly families. Next, we derive a new anomaly estimator using a mixture model, and we prove that our anomaly estimator is asymptotically unbiased regardless of the size of the anomaly family. We illustrate the advantages of our estimator versus the MLE on disease outbreak data and highway traffic data.

AB - Anomaly estimation, or the problem of finding a subset of a dataset that differs from the rest of the dataset, is a classic problem in machine learning and data mining. In both theoretical work and in applications, the anomaly is assumed to have a specific structure defined by membership in an anomaly family. For example, in temporal data the anomaly family may be time intervals, while in network data the anomaly family may be connected subgraphs. The most prominent approach for anomaly estimation is to compute the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) of the anomaly; however, it was recently observed that for normally distributed data, the MLE is a biased estimator for some anomaly families. In this work, we demonstrate that in the normal means setting, the bias of the MLE depends on the size of the anomaly family. We prove that if the number of sets in the anomaly family that contain the anomaly is sub-exponential, then the MLE is asymptotically unbiased. We also provide empirical evidence that the converse is true: if the number of such sets is exponential, then the MLE is asymptotically biased. Our analysis unifies a number of earlier results on the bias of the MLE for specific anomaly families. Next, we derive a new anomaly estimator using a mixture model, and we prove that our anomaly estimator is asymptotically unbiased regardless of the size of the anomaly family. We illustrate the advantages of our estimator versus the MLE on disease outbreak data and highway traffic data.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85133802431&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85133802431&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:85133802431

T3 - Proceedings of Machine Learning Research

SP - 1908

EP - 1919

BT - Proceedings of the 38th International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2021

PB - ML Research Press

T2 - 38th International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2021

Y2 - 18 July 2021 through 24 July 2021

ER -