Projections of heavy rainfall over the central United States based on CMIP5 models

The central United States is a region for which observational studies have indicated an increase in heavy rainfall. This study uses projections of daily rainfall from 20 state-of-the-art global climate models and one scenario [representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5] to examine projected changes in extreme rainfall. Analyses are performed focusing on trends in the 90th and 99th percentiles of the daily rainfall distributions for two periods (2006-2045 and 2046-2085). These results indicate a large increase in extreme rainfall mostly over the northern part of the region, with a much less clear signal over the Great Plains and states along the Gulf of Mexico.