Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

William W.L. Cheung, Vicky W.Y. Lam, Jorge Louis Sarmiento, Kelly Kearney, Reg Watson, Daniel Pauly

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

807 Scopus citations

Abstract

Climate change can impact the pattern of marine biodiversity through changes in species' distributions. However, global studies on climate change impacts on ocean biodiversity have not been performed so far. Our paper aims to investigate the global patterns of such impacts by projecting the distributional ranges of a sample of 1066 exploited marine fish and invertebrates for 2050 using a newly developed dynamic bioclimate envelope model. Our projections show that climate change may lead to numerous local extinction in the sub-polar regions, the tropics and semi-enclosed seas. Simultaneously, species invasion is projected to be most intense in the Arctic and the Southern Ocean. Together, they result in dramatic species turnovers of over 60% of the present biodiversity, implying ecological disturbances that potentially disrupt ecosystem services. Our projections can be viewed as a set of hypothesis for future analytical and empirical studies.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)235-251
Number of pages17
JournalFish and Fisheries
Volume10
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 1 2009

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Oceanography
  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
  • Aquatic Science
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

Keywords

  • Bioclimate envelope
  • Climate change impact
  • Global marine biodiversity
  • Niche-based model
  • Species turnover

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